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1、人民币升值对中美贸易差额影响实证探究摘要：近年来，人民币升值影响了全球经济的神经。实证研究人民币是否被低估，并进行了详细的分析是人民币问题影响到美国经济衰退。为了最大化研究人民币升值的后果，我们更使用月度数据而不是年度数据。考虑到中国和美国的实际情况，我们还利用VAR模型检验了人民币升值的迹象，发现在长期两者不存在任何因果关系。关键词：中美贸易；人民币升值；VAR中图分类号：F74文献标志码：A文章编号：1673-291X(2013)13-0233-03一、IntroductionTwoyearsago,t
2、heUSSenatepassed“CurrencyExchangeRateOversightReformActof2011”，thedebateaboutexchangeratebetweenChinaandUSbecomeshotagain.Inrecentyears,theUnitedStatesfrequentlyputspressureonChinabytheexchangerateissue・Sinceaseriesofcurrenciesmeasureswereimplementedfrom20
3、05,theUSdollaragainsttheRMBexchangeratedecreasedfrom8.27to6.29,andpusheduptheRMBstillfurther・TheyarguethattheUSinSino-UStradedeficitmaybereducediftheRMBappreciate,sotheyforcetheRMBtoappreciate.ThisarticlewouldnotonlyfindtherelationshipbetweentheSino-UStrad
4、ebalanceandtheRMBexchangeratefluctuation,butalsodiscusshowtheexchangeratesimpactourcountry，simportandexporttrade.Atlast,someviewsaboutthedisputeofSino-USexchangeratearepresented.二、TheliteraturereviewInthe1930s,AbbaLernerstatestha/tifthecurrentaccountisinit
5、iallyzero,arealcurrencydepreciationcausesacurrentaccountsurplusifthesumoftherelativepriceelasticitiesofexportandimportdemandexceeds1.Ifthecurrentaccountisnotzeroinitially,theconditionbecomessubstantiallymorecomplex,thentheexternaldevaluationofthenationalcu
6、rrencywillcertainlybeabletoimproveitstradebalanceofpayments,whichisthefamous^Marshal1-Lernercondition”.Afterthe1980s,economistsincreasinglynotetheproblemofexchangeratepass-through,formingthetheoryofincompleteexchangeratepass-through.Aswellasthechangesinana
7、tionalincome,currencydevaluationcanimprovethetradebalaneeconditions,anddevaluationcausedmorethannationalincometoincreaseexports,whichiscalledLawson-Metzlereffect.Ifwedonottakeintoaccountthetimelagofmonetarydepreciationeffect,duetoexchangeratemovements,thec
8、hangeinfinancialassetpricescanbecompletedinaninstant.Buttheexchangeroteshocksmayaffecttheeconomywithsomelags・Sowhentheexchangeratechanges,thechangeintradeandnationalincomeisrelativelyslow,sothedevaluationofth
