甘南高原短时强降水潜势预报研究和雷达回波分析

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1、甘南高原短时强降水潜势预报研究和雷达回波分析　　摘要利用甘南州8个国家气象观测站和146个乡镇区域自动气象站2011―2012年5―9月降水观测资料，风云2E红外云图资料和合作、武都高空站高空观测资料，对甘南高原短时强降水天气的特征进行分析，建立了甘南州短时强降水过程的天气尺度和中尺度概念模型和甘南州分县短时强降水潜势预报方程。同时利用2013―2014年甘南新一代天气雷达资料对甘南高原短时强降水多普勒雷达回波特征进行统计分析。结果表明：5―9月甘南州各县市均可发生短时强降水，8月是短时强降水发生频次最高的月份，5月和7月次

2、之，6月和9月相对较少。按照环流形势甘南高原短时强降水过程可以分为高原低槽切变型、槽后西北气流型和高压内部型3种类型。甘南短时强降水云顶亮温值在8月达到最低。甘南短时强降水大部分个例回波强度大于20dbz，回波顶高度在3km以上，垂直液态含水量在5kg/m2，77%的短时强降水速度场有明显的辐合和中气旋。　　关键词短时强降水；潜势预报；雷达回波；甘南高原　　中图分类号P456文献标识码A文章编号1007-5739（2016）14-0197-04　　PotentialForecastResearchandRadarEchoAn

3、alysisofShort-timeStrongRainfallinGannanPlateau　　JIZhe-junANHua-yinHETaoCHENYangZHAOHui-zhenLUOWang-jun　　（GannanTibetanAutonomousPrefectureMeteorologicalBureau9ofGansuProvince，HezuoGansu747000）　　AbstractBasedontheobservationraindataof8nationalstationsand146regional

4、automaticmeteorologicalstationsfromMaytoSeptemberin2011―2012andIRimagedatabyFY-2Eandupper-airobservationdatainWuduStation，thecharacteristicsoftheshort-timestrongrainfallwasanalyzed.Theconceptualmodelofbothsynopticscaleandmeso-scalerainfallwasestablished，therespecti

5、vepotentialforecastingequationsoftheshort-timestrongrainfallwasbuildcorrespondingtoeachcountyinGannan.TheStatisticandAnalysisofDopplerradarechobynewweatherradaratGannanplateauform2013to2014weremadeatthesametime.Theresultsshowedthattheshort-timestrongrainfalloccursi

6、nallcountiesofGannanfromMaytoSeptemberandthehighestfrequencyoftheshort-timestrongrainfalloccurrencewasinOctober，andfollowedbyMayandJuly，andtheleastinJuneandSeptember.Accordingtothelargescalecirculationsituation，theprocessesmodelsoftheshort-timestrongrainfallinGanna

7、nplateaucouldbeclassifiedthreepatterns：pressuretroughshearontheQinghai-XizangPlateau，northwesterlyairflowafterthetroughandhigh-pressureinternalfield.TheTBBvalueofcloudinwhichtheshort-timestrongrainfalltookplacehitbottominAugust.Theechointensityofthemostcaseswasgrea

8、terthan20dbz，thetopofthe9echowashigherthan3kmandtheverticalliquidwatercontentwasabout5kg/m2andthereexistedapparentconvergenceandmesocycloneinvelo