高新技术企业财务预警研究——以z公司为例

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1、AbstractAsChinaproposedtheestablishmentofallinnovativenationalstrategy,innovationcapabilityishighlyvalued，hightechcompaniesastherepresentativeoftheinnovativecompanies，itsgroupinnovativecapabilityisincreasing，socialandeconomicbenefitsappearedrapidly,obtainvigorouslysupp

2、ortfromthegovernment．Thefinancialallocation，taxbreaksandotherpreferentialpoliciesprovideagoodopportunityforthedevelopmentofhigh-techCompany．Buthigh-techcompanyduetoitshighinvestment,highrisk,highincome，hi。ghproportionofintangibleassets，therisksfacedarealsogreaterthanth

3、etraditionalindustry；thisistheresearchsignificanceoff'manciaiearlywarningabouthigh-techcompaniesinmypaper．AccordingtotheFinancialEarlyWarningtheoreticalknowledge，thispaperanalyzesthealarm，riskandcrisisthatthehigh-techenterprisesmayoccur．Accordingtothecharacteristicsofh

4、igh—techcompaniestoestablishtheCVPearly—warningmodel．Intheprocessofestablishingmodelfirstusetheregressionstraight—linemethodtoeSt油atethecostofZCompany,topavethewayforthenextmodel．TheresultsofthisstudyindicatethattheCVPmodelcallbeusedtothefinancialearly—warningofhi—tech

5、companies，thesafetymarginrateisthebusinesssafetydegree，theindexvalueofthemarginisdividedintofive：morethan40％，30％-40％，20％-30％，10％-20％，lessthan10％，thecorrespondingoperationsafetydegreeareverysafe，safe，relativelysafe，bealert，verydangerous．Whenthemarginindexvalueislessthan

6、20％wouldindicatethatthereisariskinthecompany,theindexcallberisebyincreasingthevolumeofbusinesstoincreaserevenuesorincreasingcostofchange．TheinnovationofthispaperisthattheCVPanalysismethodisappliedtothefinancialearly—warning，combinedwiththecharacteristicsofhigh-techente

7、rprises，putsforwardthefinancialearly-warningmodel．Thesafetymarginrateisaneglectedindexinthefinancialearly—warning，mostscholarsthinkthatitisnotimportant,butthisstudyshowsthatthesafetyofmarginalrateCanpredictthehiddencrisisthatcannotbeshoweddirectly,thisisthesignificance

8、offinancialearly-warning．Thelimitationsofthispaperareasfollows：(1)althoughusingtheregressionanalysismethodCandistingu