变化环境下流域径流演变研究——驱动力 演化模式及模拟预测

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1、(8)论文基于新的预测理念，在华南地区径流演化研究中，首次将HHT方法的自适应多分辨分析同人工神经网络的强有力的逼近功能结合起来，建立了基于HHT方法的径向基神经网络预测模型，并对东江流域年径流序列进行了模拟和中长期预测，得到了比较理想的结果，丰富了径流预测的理论和方法。关键词：流域径流变化环境人类活动影响东江流域演变规律Hilbert-Huang变换二元驱动模式流域分布式水文模型lIIVariation对Q赢qOmoffun以'raChangingEnvironment柳倒州驴叼坼，矽月甜Jlo竹JiaozhiTutor_：．o艇Ⅳ蜘￡otl8Profe．ra”AbstractAsweaHk

2、now,sincetheearthcomesintobeingintheuniverse，globalchangeisgoingallalong．Beforehumancomesintobeings．itissaidthatenvironmentalchanges，suchasthechangesofoceanandlandarea，naturalairslakingandwindingerosionandSOon,allarenaturalevolutionprocesses，andtheyappeartobestochasticandregular．Buthumanactivities，f

3、orexample，landuse，plantationanddambuilding,coupledwiththesenaturalfactorsaremakinghumanhabitationallaroundthembecomeWorSeandworseespeciallyinrecentyears．Furthermore，alongwiththecontinuingadvancementofhumancivilization，thechangeofenvironmentisbecominggreaterandgreater．Takethefieldofwaterresourcesasan

4、example：ontheonehand，thedemandofwaterresourcesisbecomingmuchmoreaccessorial,makingthecontradictionbetweenwaterdemandandwatersupplymoreoutstanding；ontheotherhand，duetotheeffectsofhumanactivitiesandglobalclimatechange，thehydrologicalfactorS(includingprecipitation,temperature，evaporation，runoff)arechan

5、gingtempestuously,andtheprocessofwatercyclebecomingincreasinglycomplex．Thereforeresearchonthewatercycleunderchangingenvkonmentisoneofthekeyplansoftheresearchesonglobalchange．Basinruno拭asthekeytacheofwatercycleandappearingaspectofavailablewaterresources，isthemainbasisofexploringandapplyingwaterresour

6、ces，optimizingcollocationandscientificmanagementofwaterresources．Butprocessofrunoffformingofthevalleyisbecomingtoomuchmoreexposuretohumanactivitiesandglobalclimatechange．Sothisdissertationselectsbasinrunoffasresearchobjects，andonthebasisofanalyzingprocessofrunoffformingofthevaUeyandeffectfactorsofit

7、self,discussestheevolutionmodelsofrunoffformingofthevalleyandthecausesofthemunderchangingenvironmentandfuturechangescenes．Accordinglythiscanbewellappliedtoirrigationworksandwaterconservancyplanning，fo