海上溢油事故风险评价——以珠江口为例

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1、OilSpillRiskAssessmentinthesea——theapplicationinThePearlRiverEstuaryMajor：EnviromentalScienceName：Xu，HuanSupervisor：Li，ShiyuAbstractInrecentyears，theoilpollutionofwaterismoreandmoreserious，whichmustbeattachedmoreattention．EmergentOilPollutionhascomplicatedcharacteristicsandmultipleforms，itocc

2、urssuddenlyanddoesterribleharmtoenvironmentandisdifftculttodispose，whichmakesitverydifficulttoresearchinthisfield．What’Smore，ithavedemonstratedhighriskandsignificantdamagetothelocaleconomicsandenvironmentcausedbyoilpollution．BasedontheresearchingtheoryinthefieldofEnvironmentalmskAssessmentand

3、thehistoryoftheoilspilleventsinPearlRiverEstuary,theamendentsareasfollows：．(1)thetheoreticalbaseofthestudyisthePoissondistribution，whichisquitesuitablefortheprobabilityanalysesoftheeventsbelongto‘‘rareevents”．Basedonthehistoryrecordsoftheship’SoilspilleventsinthePearlReverEstuary,theconclusio

4、nshowthattheprobabilitycharacteristicoftheoilspilleventisupastheoilquantityadded，comparedwiththedifferentexposuredoilvolume．Whatismore，therewouldbetwotimesoccurredinthePearlRiverEstuaryinthehighoilquantity．(2)Accordingtothegreycharacteristicoftheship’Soilspillevents，theoilspillagetrendforcest

5、edbythemethodoftheGreyTopalogyAnalysisbasedonthehistoricrecordsofoilspilleventsinthePearlRiverEstuaryduring1992～2002．after2002thespilledoilvolumewouldbeabout300～500toninthefuturetenyears，thetrendisstillserious．Thoseresultsareratherhelpfulfortheriskmanagementofoilspillfromships．¨Abstract(3)Ath

6、ree—dimensionoilspillmodelareintroducedinthispaper，whichsimulatedthefateandtrackoftheoilspillage．Thentheenvironmentalimpactofoilspillispredicted，occurredinenvironmentalsusceptibleareaandtheecosystem．TheresultshowthatthedamageislargetothePearlRiverEstuarywhentheoilspilleventsoccurred．Finally,s

7、omeadvicearegivenonthesystemoftheoilspillresponse，howtoestablishtheoilpollutiondamagecompensationandclaims．KeyWords：Oilspill，RiskAssessment，PearlRiverEstuaryII／第1章绪论1．1选题意义1．1．1国内外海上溢油事故海洋环境污染是全世界面临的问题。引起海洋污染的途径很多，陆源污染物大量进入海洋以及沿岸的海水养殖业的发展是导致近