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ID:28481036
大小:8.18 MB
页数:182页
时间:2018-12-10
《海上溢油事故风险评价——以珠江口为例》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在应用文档-天天文库。
1、OilSpillRiskAssessmentinthesea——theapplicationinThePearlRiverEstuaryMajor:EnviromentalScienceName:Xu,HuanSupervisor:Li,ShiyuAbstractInrecentyears,theoilpollutionofwaterismoreandmoreserious,whichmustbeattachedmoreattention.EmergentOilPollutionhascomplicatedcharacteristicsandmultipleforms,itocc
2、urssuddenlyanddoesterribleharmtoenvironmentandisdifftculttodispose,whichmakesitverydifficulttoresearchinthisfield.What’Smore,ithavedemonstratedhighriskandsignificantdamagetothelocaleconomicsandenvironmentcausedbyoilpollution.BasedontheresearchingtheoryinthefieldofEnvironmentalmskAssessmentand
3、thehistoryoftheoilspilleventsinPearlRiverEstuary,theamendentsareasfollows:.(1)thetheoreticalbaseofthestudyisthePoissondistribution,whichisquitesuitablefortheprobabilityanalysesoftheeventsbelongto‘‘rareevents”.Basedonthehistoryrecordsoftheship’SoilspilleventsinthePearlReverEstuary,theconclusio
4、nshowthattheprobabilitycharacteristicoftheoilspilleventisupastheoilquantityadded,comparedwiththedifferentexposuredoilvolume.Whatismore,therewouldbetwotimesoccurredinthePearlRiverEstuaryinthehighoilquantity.(2)Accordingtothegreycharacteristicoftheship’Soilspillevents,theoilspillagetrendforcest
5、edbythemethodoftheGreyTopalogyAnalysisbasedonthehistoricrecordsofoilspilleventsinthePearlRiverEstuaryduring1992~2002.after2002thespilledoilvolumewouldbeabout300~500toninthefuturetenyears,thetrendisstillserious.Thoseresultsareratherhelpfulfortheriskmanagementofoilspillfromships.¨Abstract(3)Ath
6、ree—dimensionoilspillmodelareintroducedinthispaper,whichsimulatedthefateandtrackoftheoilspillage.Thentheenvironmentalimpactofoilspillispredicted,occurredinenvironmentalsusceptibleareaandtheecosystem.TheresultshowthatthedamageislargetothePearlRiverEstuarywhentheoilspilleventsoccurred.Finally,s
7、omeadvicearegivenonthesystemoftheoilspillresponse,howtoestablishtheoilpollutiondamagecompensationandclaims.KeyWords:Oilspill,RiskAssessment,PearlRiverEstuaryII/第1章绪论1.1选题意义1.1.1国内外海上溢油事故海洋环境污染是全世界面临的问题。引起海洋污染的途径很多,陆源污染物大量进入海洋以及沿岸的海水养殖业的发展是导致近
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