亚洲新兴市场国家非正常资本流动的成因分析

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1、复旦大学硕士论文亚洲新兴市场国家非正常资本流动的成因研究AbstractTheenormousamountofsPeculativeinternationalcaPitalemergesasanimPortantfaetorwhiehaffeetsglobaleeonomieandfinaneialsituations.Ononehand，theinvestmentandfinaneialeaPitalthatinflowintoemergingmarketswithusefulhumanresoureeandteehnologysPilloverProvidegreatimPetu

2、stoeeonomiedeveloPments.Ontheotherhand，exeessiveeaPitalinflowsbeeomeaPotentialeoneernforstableandlastingdeveloPment.WhenoPtimisticeeonomieexPeetationsreverse，thePortfolioandabnormalinvestmentturnintoeaPitalflightirnmediatelybasedontheProfit一huntingandrisk一avoidingtendene丫leavebehindhorribleeeon

3、omieturmoil.TheLatin一Amerieadebterisis，MexieomonetaryerisisandAsianfinaneialerisisgaveusinstruetivelessons，50thePrinciPlebeneathinternationaleaPitalnow15worthofresearehandanalysis.Onthebaseofreviewtoliteratureonthemeasurementanddeten们inantsofabnormaleaPitalflows，wefirstdefinetheeoneePtofabnorma

4、leaPitalflowandmodifytheaPProaehofmeasurement.ThenweconstruetaneconomiemodeltoshowthatthereexistsmultiPlecaPitalequilibriuminemergingmarkets，analyzethetheoretiereasonswhylarge一sealeabnormaleaPitalflowsoecurinemergingmarkets.ThisPaPerfoeusontheexPlanatoryfaetorstotheabnormaleaPitalflowsinthelong

5、term，ehooseasetofeconomievariablesineludingglobalandeountry一sPeefiefaetorstomakeemPiricalanalysis，eomParethesitnilaritiesanddiffereneesbetweenournationandotherAsianemergingmarkets.Reeently，ChinaIiberalizeseaPitalaeeountandinternationalizesRMBstePbysteP，50theeaPitalflowthateseaPesthesuPervisionw

6、illbeagreatehallengetomacroeeonomicmanagement.DrawinglessonsfromotherAsianemergingmarkets，wecangetusefulinstruetionsformanagementofabnormaleaPitalflowand一nakePolitiealadvisements.KeyWOrds:AbnormalCaPitalFlow，InfiuentialFaetors，EmergingMarketsChineseLibraryClassifieation:F831.7复旦大学硕士论文亚洲新兴市场国家非正

7、常资本流动的成因研究钻—音己!弓犷夕尸二尸.Jl目第一节本文研究的意义大规模的不受管制的境内外资本流动干扰了发展中国家正常的金融秩序，降低了货币政策、汇率政策的效力。从历史上看，发展中国家的金融危机或货币危书L爆发往往和资产泡沫破灭、资本外逃密切相联。当投资者对宏观经济的乐观预期发生逆转之时，大规模的资本抽逃将会触发货币危机或国家信用危机，在短时间内对宏观经济造成巨大冲击。而我国在经济改革开放的过程中，在相当长的时间内保持了经济的快速增长，人均收入、物质财