影响中国汽车产量的多因素分析

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1、影响中国汽车产量的多因素分析影响中国汽车产量的多因素分析[摘要]汽车产业是国民经济的支柱产业，改革开放以来我国汽车产量呈持续上升的趋势。根据经济学原理和生活经验，汽车产量可能与钢铁产量、运输公路长度、制造业职工人数、私人汽车拥有量、石油消费总量等因素相关，本文通过建立多元线性回归模型，引入上述五个变量，利用Eviee:09:44Sample:19892003Includedobservations:15VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C-51.0043764.61807-0

2、.7893210.4502X10.0252410.0057504.3900660.0017X2-1.1968580.457563-2.6157220.0280X30.0143690.0079831.7999860.1054X40.1207050.0958861.2588390.2398X5-0.0009290.001127-0.8243740.4310R-squared0.996025Meandependentvar170.8173AdjustedR-squared0.993816S.D.dependentvar103.2583

3、S.E.ofregression8.119807Akaikeinfocriterion7.315664Sumsquaredresid593.3814Sche:10:53Sample:19892003Includedobservations:15VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C-207.990332.17540-6.4642650.0000X10.0267420.00113523.567140.0000X30.0171490.0045323.7841240.0026R-sq

4、uared0.992682Meandependentvar170.8173AdjustedR-squared0.991462S.D.dependentvar103.2583S.E.ofregression9.541313Akaikeinfocriterion7.525996Sumsquaredresid1092.440Sche:10:16Sample:19891994Includedobservations:6VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C-0.025314251.75

5、79-0.0001010.9999X10.0305110.0046766.5247920.0073X3-0.0264250.051580-0.5123100.6438R-squared0.968100Meandependentvar92.39667AdjustedR-squared0.946833S.D.dependentvar37.00892S.E.ofregression8.533533Akaikeinfocriterion7.432737Sumsquaredresid218.4636Sche:10:21Sample:199

6、82003Includedobservations:6VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C-251.6990143.0800-1.7591490.1768X10.0277280.0028529.7231630.0023X30.0261140.0322680.8092900.4776R-squared0.990165Meandependentvar259.4733AdjustedR-squared0.983609S.D.dependentvar106.7821S.E.ofreg

7、ression13.67120Akaikeinfocriterion8.375312Sumsquaredresid560.7049Schwarzcriterion8.271192Loglikelihood-22.12594F-statistic151.0189Durbin-Watsonstat2.665473Prob(F-statisti21992，给定显著性水平为0.05，查Durlin-Watson表，n=15,k=2,得下限临界值为0.946，上临界值为1.543。因为1.543〈2.121992〈4-1.543=2.45

8、7。根据判定区域知，这时随机误差项不存在一阶自相关。(2)图示法检验从上图可看出残差et较为分散，表明随机误差ut不存在自相关。4、确定模型Y=-251.699+0.027728X1+0.026114X3由于该模型的回归结果、t值以及F统计值均显著，且不存在计量