欢迎来到天天文库
浏览记录
ID:26863355
大小:1.96 MB
页数:64页
时间:2018-11-29
《基于Mixed Multinomial Logit模型的财务困境预警分析:以制造业为例》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、-哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文AbstractFinancialcrisisof2008highlightedtheshortcomingsofriskmanagementpracticeswithinthelendingenvironmentandriskassessmentatthemicrolevel.Lendersandotherinvestorsinthecorporatesectoralongwithregulatorsrequiretimelyinformationonthedefaultriskprobabilityofcorporations
2、.Thecontinualdevelopmentofconceptuallyricherandmoreaccurateforecastingmodelsisofimportancetoregulators,practitioners,andacademics.ThethesistakesChinese201listingcorporationsasthesample,basedonthetheoreticalanalysisandtheactualsituationofChinesesecuritiesmarket,thecompaniesisdividedint
3、othree-stateclassification:financialdistresscompany,sub-healthcompany,healthycompany.Intheresearch,themixedmultinomiallogitisthemainmethodused,comparedwithtraditionalstandardmultinomiallogit,mixedmultinomiallogitrelaxesbehaviorallyquestionableassumptionsassociatedwithindependencefromi
4、rrelevantalternatives(I.I.A)andallowedforobservedandunobservedheterogeneity,themodelshowsthegreaterflexibility.Thenmultinomiallogitandmixedmultinomiallogitmodelareemployedtoestablishthree-stateclassificationfinancialdistresspredictionmodelusingfinancialratiosdataintheinvestigationresp
5、ectively.Theempiricalresultsdemonstratethatmodel-fitsandout-of-sampleforecastingaccuracyofthemixedmultinomiallogitaremuchsuperiortostandardmultinomiallogit.Also,mixedmultinomiallogitallowsameaningfulinterpretationoftheroleofthemeanandvarianceinfluenceofaparticularvariablethroughthestr
6、uctureofitsparameterspace.Themixedmultinomiallogitmodelthatconstructsintheresearchnotonlycanbeusedtopredictthree-stateclassification,butalsocanapplytopredicttwo-stateclassification.Themodelhavevaluableapplicationinfinancialdistress.Keywords:financialdistressprediction,three-stateclass
7、ification,mixedmultinomiallogit,multinomiallogit----II----哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文目录摘要...............................................................................................................................IAbstract.......................................................................
8、.....
此文档下载收益归作者所有