美股-制药业-无商标药Q3思考：核心业务承压.docx

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1、GenericsThoughtsInto3Q:CoreBusinessesRemainUnderPressureWithLimitedNewLaunches/IncreasedCompetitionAheadof3QEPSresults,wewantedtoshareourlatestthoughtsonourspecialtypharma/genericscoverage.Overall,IQVIAtrendshighlightacontinuedchallengingfundamentalsetupforthegenericmanufacturerswithnewl

2、aunchesfewandfarbetweenandgenericbasebusinessescontinuingtoerodeformanynames.Atthesametime,weexpectrelativelysolidperformanceforthebrandedspecialtyproductsacrossthesector.Onspecificnames,despiteachallenging3Q,weseerecentweaknessinMYLasoverdone–lookingbeyondobviousnear-termchallenges(Morg

3、antownremediationcoupledwithrelativefewnewlauncheswillpressure3Q/4Qresults),weseeMylanasoneofthebetter-positionedplayersinthespacewithanumberoflonger-termgrowthdriversinplace(biosimilars,thependinggAdvairapproval,asignificantex-USbusiness).Atthesametime,wearecautiousonAMRXandPRGOheadingi

4、ntotheqtrgivenrecentcompetitiveapprovals.·MYL(OW):Loweringnear-termestimatestoreflectbasebizpressures.WeareupdatingourestimatestoreflectmorechallengingUSgenericbusinessdynamicsasthelackofsignificantapprovalsandtheMorgantownremediationappearstobehavingamorepronouncedimpactthanweanticipate

5、dandgCopaxonemarketsharedynamicshavenotimprovedfollowingMYL’spricecut.Wenowestimate3Qsalesof$2.8bn(-$119mmvscons)andEPSof$1.13(-$0.06vscons).Beyondtheqtr,wearealsoloweringour2019forecastsandnowestimateEPSof$4.55and$5.11forFY2018andFY2019,respectively.·Lookingbeyondtheseobviousnear-termch

6、allenges,wecontinuetoseeMylanasoneofthebetter-positionedplayersinthespacewithanumberoflonger-termgrowthdriversinplace(biosimilars,thependinggAdvairapproval,asignificantex-USbusiness).Further,sharesremaininexpensiveonourupdatednumbers(6.9x/8.3x2018EPS/EBITDA)andweseethecompany’sannounceds

7、trategicreviewascreatingoptionalityinthestorywithseveralpotentialpathstounlockvalue.Alongtheselines,weremainOWonMYLshares.NorthAmericaEquityResearch29October2018Pharmaceuticals—Major&SpecialtyChrisSchott,CFAAC(1-212)622-5676christopher.t.schott@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMAS