表为某种特种汽车轮胎的月销售记录

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1、表为某种特种汽车轮胎的月销售记录。a.计算当SA。=100，α=0.2时的一次指数平滑预测值。b.计算当SA。=100，α=0.4时的一次指数平滑预测值。c.计算a，b两种情况的MAD,RSFE。月份123456789101112销售量104104100921059595104104107110109某公司的月销售额一次指数平滑预测表（SA。=100，α=0.2）单位：只α×上月上月预测（1-α）×上月预本月平滑预月份销售量MADRS实销售量销售量测销售量测销售量1104.00100.005.29391522.2104.0020.80100.00

2、80.00100.803100.0020.80100.8080.64101.44492.0020.00101.4481.15101.155105.0018.40101.1580.9299.32695.0021.0099.3279.46100.46795.0019.00100.4680.3799.378104.0019.0099.3779.4998.499104.0020.8098.4978.7999.5910107.0020.8099.5979.68100.4811110.0021.40100.4880.38101.7812109.0022.00

3、101.7881.42103.42表C-1.1某公司的月销售额一次指数平滑预测表（SA。=100，α=0.4）单位：α×上月上月预测（1-α）×上月预本月平滑预测月份销售量MADRSF实销售量销售量测销售量销售量1104.00100.005.04517418.32104.0041.60100.0060.00101.603100.0041.60101.6060.96102.56492.0040.00102.5661.54101.545105.0036.80101.5460.9297.72695.0042.0097.7258.63100.63795.

4、0038.00100.6360.3898.388104.0038.0098.3859.0397.039104.0041.6097.0358.2299.8210107.0041.6099.8259.89101.491111042.8101.4960.89103.691210944103.6962.22106.22表C-1.22.生产运作管理课本95页习题3表为某城区居民平均每季猪肉消费量。是选用适当的模型并预测该城区居民下一年各季度平均猪肉消费量。单位：公斤春夏秋冬第一年3.051.451.964.54第二年5.113.423.896.62第三年7

5、.035.515.958.52第四年9.147.557.8810.562.1根据已知求出4个季度消费总量和移动平均以及季节中点：某城区居民过去四年平均每季度猪肉消费量季度序号t季度消费量4个季度消费总量4个季度移动平均季度中点1春3.052夏1.453秋1.964冬4.5411.002.752.505春5.1113.063.273.506夏3.4215.033.764.507秋3.8916.964.245.508冬6.6219.044.766.509春7.0320.965.247.5010夏5.5123.055.768.5011秋5.9525.1

6、16.289.5012冬8.5227.016.7510.5013春9.1429.127.2811.5014夏7.5531.167.7912.5015秋7.8833.098.2713.5016冬10.5635.138.7814.50表C-2.12.2根据某城区居民过去四年平均每季度猪肉消费量表作图，并根据散点图做出消费量的趋势线如图：图C-2.2求出趋势线方程为：y=0.501x+1.4992.3估算季节系数。At/Tt计算表季节序号tTtAt/Tt12.001.5322.500.5833.000.6543.501.3054.001.2864.50

7、0.7675.000.7885.501.2096.001.17106.500.85117.000.85127.501.14138.001.14148.500.89159.000.88169.501.11表C-2.3.1根据表C-2.3.1得出季节系数如下表：季节系数SI(春)SI(夏)SI(秋)SI(冬)1.280.770.791.19表C-2.3.2计算如下：SI(春)=（A1/T1＋A5/T5＋A9/T9＋A13/T13）/4=1.28SI(夏)=（A2/T2＋A6/T6＋A10/T10＋A14/T14）/4=0.77SI(秋)=（A3/T3

8、＋A7/T7＋A11/T11＋A15/T15）/4=0.79SI(冬)=（A4/T4＋A8/T8＋A12/T12＋A16/T16）/4=