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1、OnOneofBarackObama’sPoliciesTheUnitedStatescongresspassedtheneweconomicstimulusplan.Thisisa$780billionbudgetplan.Theplanisthecoreofthetaxcutsandconsumption.WeanalyzetheschemeoftheUnitedStatesoftheconsequences.WecomparetheplanwithtenyearsagosoutheastAsiaeconomiccrisis.Aboveall,seein
2、gtheproblemofsoutheastAsiaeconomiccrisis.Onthesurface,southeastAsia'seconomiccrisisisthelargeinternationalbusinessmenoperatingresults.Theproblemisinthefollowingrespects.①Toexportorientedlabor-intensiveindustrialdevelopmentadvantages,alongwiththerisingcostoflaborforceandmarketcompet
3、itionintensifyingisfalling.ThesoutheastAsiancountriesandregionsthemodeofeconomicgrowthandeconomicstructurenottimelyandeffectiveadjustment,causelesscompetitive,foreignexportgrowthslow,causethecurrent-accountdeficitremainshigh.In1996,Thailandcurrent-accountdeficitpaymentsfor$23billio
4、n.SouthKoreaisashighas23.7billiondollars.②Bankloanstooloose,realestateinvestment,commercialvacancyraterose,theoccurringofbank.Baddebt,andothernon-performingassetsincreasinginflation.Thailandfinancialinstitutionsappearfactoryseriouscashflowproblems,SouthKoreaseverallargeenterprisein
5、solvencydeclaredbankruptcy,Japanseveralfinancialinstitutionscollapse,Indonesiaiscreditcrisisdeepens.Theseeconomicfactorsinfluenceonallsidesofthemarketsandthestockmarket.③Economicgrowthrelyingtooheavilyonforeigncapital,alotofintroducingtheforeigncapitalandleadtoincreasedforeigndebt.
6、TheThaiforeigndebtin1992for$20billion,1997yearsbeforethecurrencydepreciationhasreached86billionusdollars,southKoreanforeigndebtmorethan1500$.④Exchangeratesystemrigidity.Inrecentyearsofinternationalmajorcurrenciesdollarhasgreatappreciation,southeastAsiancountriesandregionsoftheexcha
7、ngeratewasnotmadeadjust.Thusthephenomenonofappearoverestimate,increasingproductpricesandexportdownsharply.Thesecountriesandregionsdevaluationisimperative.Currencydevaluationandledtorepaydebtcapacitydropsfurther,inflationpressureincreased,promptedamarketdecline.⑤Intheopenconditionsa
8、ndstraincapacityisnotfully
