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1、FOCUSEuropeanAutos&AutoPartsChina:asleepingdragon?INDUSTRYUPDATEEquityResearch29October2018Amarketinturmoil:Giventhesharpdeclineinmonthlycarsalesfiguressincethesummer(-8%3Q18,-25%MTDOct),theprospectsforChinesecardemandremainakeyconcernforautosinvestors.Inthisreportwee
2、xaminewhathascausedthedropinvolumessinceQ3andthemidandlongertermoutlookforcarsalesinChina.Thecurrentcontractioninsalesislargelylimitedtothevolumemarket.Webelievethisisbecauseinadditiontoagloomiereconomicoutlookandfearsoveraglobaltradewar,animportantcauseofthedownturnisB
3、eijing’scrackdownonunregulatedP2PfinancinginTier3-5cities.Furthermore,near-recordgasprices(up50%sinceJanuary2016)mayalsobeburdeningmassmarketbuyers.Incontrast,premiumsales,whichtendtorelyonfinancingthroughmoreregulatedchannels(captiveFSarms,banks,insurersetc)andaremorer
4、esilienttofuelpriceinflation,haveheldupwell(+12%ytd).Ourbasecasescenarioremainscautiouslyoptimisticforautosalesfor2019E,notjustgivenrelativelysupportiveGDPgrowthrates,butalsoinlightofapotentialgovernmentstimulusforcardemand.Thiscouldtakeseveralforms,includingeasingcurbs
5、onP2Plending,taxincentivesorscrappingschemes.Butwithoutgovernmentstimulus,wenotethatChineseautosalesmaystall.WeareyettofindalongtermpredictivemodelforChinacardemandataprovincelevelbutwehighlightten“hot”provinces.Ourlatestheat-mapillustrateswhichChineseprovincesharbourth
6、egreatestuntappedvehicledemandpotential.WhilesomeprovincesinChinaareclearlyover-saturatedwithcars,weseeopportunitiesinthesetenregions,whereincomestatisticsarestrongestandcardensitylowest.Allelseequal,werethese“hotprovinces”toreachaveragecarpenetrationonaparwithRussia(34
7、1cars/1000people),totalChinasaleswouldgrowataCAGRof7.5%forthenext5years.Wearepositiveontheprospectsforpremiumdemand,givenagrowingmiddleclassandhighexpansionpotentialfromgreaterfinancingrates.ThelongertermprospectsformassOEMsappearmoremixedandtheopportunitiesshouldbeseti
8、nthecontextofapossibleshiftfromcarownershiptosharedmicro-mobility(e-bikesandscooters).Giventhedramaticdeclinei
