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1、Risk-sensitivedecisionsupportsystemfortunnelconstructionComprehensiveandrealistictunnelingplansmuststriveforoptimaldecisionsthatminimizetimeandcostwhileaddressingimportantfactorssuchasgeologicuncertaintyandvariability,uncertaintyintunnelingproductivity,andthecontractor’srisksensitivity.T
2、hispaperpresentsacomputerizeddecisionsupportsystemthatincorporatesallimportanttunnelingrisks.Itconsistsofthreeinterrelatedmodels:theprobabilisticgeologicpredictionmodel,theprobabilistictunnelcostestimatingmodel,andtherisk-sensitivedynamicdecisionmodel.Theprobabilisticgeologicpredictionmo
3、delusesallavailablegeologicinformationtocharacterizegeologicuncertaintyandvariabilityalongthetunnelprofileintheprobabilisticfromofgroundclasstransitions.Theprobabilistictunnelcostestimatingmodelevaluatestunnelingtimeandcostperformancesforapplyingdifferentexcavationandsupportmethodstodiff
4、erentprevailinggroundconditionsbyusingMonteCarlosimulationtoactualtunnelingoperations.概率隧道成本估算模型评估隧穿时间和成本，表现为在利用蒙特卡罗模拟实际施工操作下，把不同的开挖和支护方法应用到不同的地面条件。Bothmodelsprovidethemaininputfortherisk-sensitivedynamicdecisionmodel,thecoreofthesystem,todeterminetheoptimalexcavationandsupportsequencean
5、dthecorrespondingrisk-adjustedtunnelingcostsfortheprojectasfunctionsofavailableprojectinformationandthecontractor’srisksensitivity.这两个模型提供了对风险敏感的动态决策模型这一系统核心的主要输入，作为可用项目信息和承包商的风险敏感度职能，以此来确定最优开挖与支护顺序和相应的风险调整后的隧道项目成本。Theapplicationofthesystemtoanactualhighwaytunnelingprojectillustratesboth
6、themodelingpoweroftheapproachtoquantifyandincorporaterisk,anditseffectivenessformakingoptimaldecisionsasfunctionsofthecontractor’sdegreeofrisksensitivity.1,Ph.D.,Lecturer,DepartmentofCivilEngineering,ChulalongkornUniversity,Bangkok10330,Thailand,fcevlk@eng.chula.ac.th2,Ph.D.,Professor,De
7、partmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,UniversityofMichigan,AnnArbor,MI48109-2125,USA,photios@umich.eduGeotechnicalengineeringfortransportationprojectsIntroductionTunnelsarevitaloptionsformoderntransportationsystemsbecausetheyaretheonlytransportationsystemthatcansolve
