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1、Risk-sensitivedecisionsupportsystemfortunnelconstructionComprehensiveandrealistictunnelingplansmuststriveforoptimaldecisionsthatminimizetimeandcostwhileaddressingimportantfactorssuchasgeologicuncertaintyandvariability,uncertaintyintunnelingproductivity,andthecontractor’s
2、risksensitivity.Thispaperpresentsacomputerizeddecisionsupportsystemthatincorporatesallimportanttunnelingrisks.Itconsistsofthreeinterrelatedmodels:theprobabilisticgeologicpredictionmodel,theprobabilistictunnelcostestimatingmodel,andtherisk-sensitivedynamicdecisionmodel.Th
3、eprobabilisticgeologicpredictionmodelusesallavailablegeologicinformationtocharacterizegeologicuncertaintyandvariabilityalongthetunnelprofileintheprobabilisticfromofgroundclasstransitions.Theprobabilistictunnelcostestimatingmodelevaluatestunnelingtimeandcostperformancesfo
4、rapplyingdifferentexcavationandsupportmethodstodifferentprevailinggroundconditionsbyusingMonteCarlosimulationtoactualtunnelingoperations.概率隧道成本估算模型评估隧穿时间和成本，表现为在利用蒙特卡罗模拟实际施工操作下，把不同的开挖和支护方法应用到不同的地面条件。Bothmodelsprovidethemaininputfortherisk-sensitivedynamicdecisionmodel,th
5、ecoreofthesystem,todeterminetheoptimalexcavationandsupportsequenceandthecorrespondingrisk-adjustedtunnelingcostsfortheprojectasfunctionsofavailableprojectinformationandthecontractor’srisksensitivity.这两个模型提供了对风险敏感的动态决策模型这一系统核心的主要输入，作为可用项目信息和承包商的风险敏感度职能，以此来确定最优开挖与支护顺序和相应的风
6、险调整后的隧道项目成本。Theapplicationofthesystemtoanactualhighwaytunnelingprojectillustratesboththemodelingpoweroftheapproachtoquantifyandincorporaterisk,anditseffectivenessformakingoptimaldecisionsasfunctionsofthecontractor’sdegreeofrisksensitivity.1,Ph.D.,Lecturer,DepartmentofCiv
7、ilEngineering,ChulalongkornUniversity,Bangkok10330,Thailand,fcevlk@eng.chula.ac.th2,Ph.D.,Professor,DepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,UniversityofMichigan,AnnArbor,MI48109-2125,USA,photios@umich.eduGeotechnicalengineeringfortransportationprojectsIntroductionTu
8、nnelsarevitaloptionsformoderntransportationsystemsbecausetheyaretheonlytransportationsystemthatcansolve
