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2、Gold26October2018PleaserefertoimportantinformationandMARdisclosuresattheendofthisreportCOMMODITIESAfterthegoldrush…KEYMESSAGESGoldfacesmultipleheadwinds,includinghigherUSTreasuryyields,astrongdollarcurrentlyandaFedholdingthecourseonpolicyratenormalisation.Weseetherecentjumpingold’spriceasl
3、imitedinscope,andowingmostlytotherecentde-riskinginequitymarketsthatweviewasacorrectionratherthanbeinginthethroesofabearmarket.Althoughwehavenudgedupourperiodaverageforecasts,directionallyweremainnegativeonthepriceoftheyellowmetalthroughH12019.Our2018forecastisreviseduptoUSD1260/oz(+USD10/oz);our
4、2019forecastisraisedtoUSD1145/oz(+USD45/oz).Sinceourlastpublicationinmid-July,thegoldmarkethasuntilveryrecentlylackedlustre.ThepreciousmetaltradedroughlyinaUSD1180toUSD1210/ozrangewhileitsrealised30-dayvolatilitybarelymovedabove10%.Withpersistentdollarstrength,higherUSyieldsandlittlesignofinflati
5、on,goldstruggledtomovehigher.NoamountofconcerntiedtotheescalatingUS-Chinatradedispute,EMdifficultiesorgeopoliticaleventswassufficienttogeneratesafe-havendemandandpushgoldhigher.TRADEIDEAWeexpectequitymarketjitterstofade,atleastinthenearterm,removingakeysupportforgoldprices.TheFedcontinuestonormal
6、isepolicyrates,divergingfromECBpolicy,andthedollarisstrong.Ourforecastsuggests10-yearUSyieldswillholdabove3%.Andwithinflationcontained,therealrateispositiveandlikelytodriveaboutofofweaknessingoldpriceinQ12019.Assuch,welikebeinglongUSD1190/1150putspreadsonMarch2019,currentlyatacostofUSD5.90/oz.The
7、USD1200/ozpricelevelprovedahardtechnicalsupporttobreach.Wesuspectthatprivatewealthmanagersboughtdipsbelowthislevelalongsidemacrofundslookingforahedgetotheirequityexposure,thuskeepinggoldafloat.Inthepasttwoweeks,equityjittershavethrowngoldalifelineandithasrisenaboveUSD1240/oz.Butwearenotexpectingt
8、hede-riskinginequitiestolast,suggestingthat,givenpositiverealratesandastrongdollar,investorswilleventuallyshyawayfromgold.Fig.1:BNPParibasgold/silverpriceforecastsFig.2:HistoricalgoldandsilverpricesGoldSilverGold/Silve
