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1、COREEquityResearch
2、BankBrief26October2018JasonM.Goldberg,CFA+12125268580jason.goldberg@barclays.comBCI,USCompleted:26-Oct-18,16:05GMTGuidanceGridPost3Q18Released:26-Oct-18,16:05GMTBARCLAYSCLASSIFICATION:Restricted-ExternalBankBriefBonusForward-LookingStatementsfromthe3Q18EarningsSea
3、sonBelowfindalistofforwardlookingdisclosureseachcompanymadeinits3Q18earningsreleaseandconferencecall.Thiscouldassistyouinyourmodeling,reviewingtheupcomingForm10-Q’sandwithmanagementmeetingsyoumayhaveduringthequarter.Wearealsoattachingafilethatsummarizesallofthisguidanceintoasimple3-
4、pagegrid.Simply‘click’directlybelowmynameintheupperleftcornerofthise-mail.Forourcompleteearningsreviewnotesclickthereporttitlesbelow.Wealsoincludedlinkstoourupdatedexcelmodels(clickonthetickerbelowthereviewreporttitles).Comparingourcurrent2018compositeforecast(looksatthemedianbankun
5、dercoverage)totheonewepublishedimmediatelypriortothe3Q18earningsseason,showssomeminorchanges.Whilewestillexpect5%revenuegrowthin2018,withnetinterestincomeup6%(stillseeAEA+2%,NIM+11bps)and3%feeincomegrowth,wenowexpect3%expensegrowth,downfrom4%.Inaddition,ourcompositeforecastnowassume
6、sa15%dropinthemedianbank’sloanlossprovision,comparedtoexpectationsof2%declineprior(wewerethinkinga13%increaseprior2Q18resultsanda25%riseatthestartoftheyear).Inaddition,our2018taxrateassumptionisnow90bpslower.For2019,wecurrentlyforesee9%EPSgrowthatthemedianbankwith5%revenuegrowthasne
7、tinterestincomegrows5%(AEA+3%,NIM+6bps)andfeeincomerises4%.Weexpecta3%increaseinexpenses,a34%jumpintheloanlossprovision(fromalowbase),andahighertaxrate.Wealsoforeseea5%reductioninsharesoutstanding.Despitetherecentselloffinthemarket,andbankstocksinparticular,onthe3Q18earningscalls,ba
8、nkmanagementsgenerallyremainedconstructiveontheU.S.economyandbelievethathigherinterestrateswillbeadditivetonetinterestincome,assumingameasuredincreaseindepositbetas.Lookingaheadto4Q18resultsrelativeto3Q18,manyseemtobecallingfor:highernetinterestincomereflectingimprovedloangrowth(H.8
9、loanslastFridayreac
