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1、“It’stheEconomy,Stupid!”CharacteristicsUSeconomy=highlydeveloped+integratedMajorsectorsSalesManufacturingFinanceHealthCareConstructionTechnologyConsumerspending+govhealthcarespending=70%GDPWealthDistributionVeryunequalRichest1%=24%ofincome,35%ofwealthRichest20%=85%ofwealth-Yet-Mos
2、tthinkthetop20%=60%EveryonethinkstheyaremiddleclassTaxcuts+peopleearning$250,000+/yearWealthDistribution21930-1970:America↑=Mirroredpolitically+socially.1980-present:≠hasexploded.80%incomegainstotop1%2000-2009:productivity↑20%;Øwagegrowthformiddle+lowerclassesGrowthPostwarperiod=p
3、rolongedboom46-73avggrowth=4%/yrRealmedianhouseholdincome↑55%74-presentGrowthslows:3%/yrHouseholdincome+wagesflatHouseholdincome↑only10%over35yearsSeriesofrecessions1973,1975,1981-2,1990-91,2001,20082000’s#ofjobsSep2009=#inJune1999Population↑9%Since2000,1in6manufacturingjobsgoneØs
4、tockmarketgrowth1998:49%ownstock;2008:45%Medianhouseholdincome↓Poverty↑2%Uninsuredpopulation↑19.5%Homeownershiplevelssameas2000Whathappened?Why?ShiftfromindustrialtoserviceeconomyProductionsoefficientthatthepriceofgoodsdroppedcomparedtoservices.Globalization75-80’sJapan;90’sTaiwan
5、,Singapore,SKorea;2000-presentChina,India,MexicoΔingov/socialphilosophy’33-’68Democratic,69-09,RepublicanLackofindustrialpolicy;dismantlingofNewDealPoliticalImportanceIt’stheeconomy,stupid!EverycampaignofficePoliticalscientistsargueelectionresults=stateoftheeconomy6monthspriortoel
6、ection.CurrentRecessionClintonAdmin.focusedontechnologysector.DotComBoom→2001recessionBushAdmin.focusedonconstructionsector.TaxcreditsforhomebuyersLowinterestrates.Housesboughtoncredit.Bankingindustry↑$;maxprofitsif↑lendingExtremelyriskysellsdebttoWallSt.LehmanBrothersLehmanBroth
7、ersBankinvestedheavilyinthehousingmarket.2008:Econbeginstoslow;homeownerslaid-offdefaultonloans(failtopaythebank).Lehmanhastowriteoffbaddebt.MarketworriesLehmanØablerecoverdebt.Sep9:“Run”onLehmanstock;company↓45%.Sep14:Bankruptcy;DOW↓4.5%(1dayrecord).Sep29:DOW↓7%.Investorsfearoth
8、erbanks=Lehman’sBanksfearrunonsto
