第六讲 预期作用

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1、第六讲预期的作用1©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchardChapter1Expectations:TheBasicToolsDistinguishingbetweenrealandnominalinterestratesExpectedpresentdiscountedvalueTheChapterAhead2©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomic

2、s,4/eOlivierBlanchard§1.NominalVersusRealInterestRatesInterestRatesexpressedintermsofdollars(or,moregenerally,inunitsofthenationalcurrency)arecallednominalinterestratesInterestratesexpressedintermsofabasketofgoodsarecalledrealinterestrates.3©2006Prentice

3、HallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchardDefinitionandDerivationoftheRealInterestRateit=nominalinterestrateforyeart.rt=realinterestrateforyeart.(1+it):Lendingonedollarthisyearyields(1+it)dollarsnextyear.Alternatively,borrowingonedollarthisy

4、earimpliespayingback(1+it)dollarsnextyear.Pt=pricethisyear.Pet+1=expectedpricenextyear.Figure14©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchardTheexpectedinflationrateisgivenbyConsequently,GivenAndknowingthatIfthenominalinterestratean

5、dtheexpectedrateofinflationarenottoolarge,asimplerexpressionis:Therealinterestrateis(approximately)equaltothenominalinterestrateminustheexpectedrateofinflation.5©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchardHerearesomeoftheimplicati

6、onsoftherelationabove:IfIfif6©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchardNominalandRealInterestRatesintheUnitedStatesSince1978NominalandRealOne-YearT-billRatesintheUnitedStatessince1978Althoughthenominalinterestratehasdeclinedcons

7、iderablysincetheearly1980s,therealinterestratewasactuallyhigherin2001thanin1981.Figure27©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard§2.ExpectedPresentDiscountedValuesComputingPresentDiscountedValuesFigure3Theexpectedpresentdiscou

8、ntedvalueofasequenceoffuturepaymentsisthevaluetodayofthisexpectedsequenceofpayments.8©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard1.ComputingExpectedPresentDiscountedValues(a)Onedollarthisyea