7凯恩斯全球失衡与当今国际货币体系改革

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1、Keynes,GlobalImbalances，andInternationalMonetaryReform，Today凯恩斯、全球失衡与当今国际货币体系改革RobertSkidelskyandVijayJoshi罗伯特•斯基德尔斯基维杰•乔希RebalancingtheGlobalEconomy:APrimer［后蒙书/雷管/底漆/引线JybrPolicymakingbyStijnClaessens，SimonEvenettandBernardHoekman(eds)

2、Wednesday,June23,2010T

3、hischapterarguesthattheKeynesPlanof1941fordealingwiththetradeimbalancesofhistimeishighlyrelevanttotheproblemofEastAsian-USimbalancestoday.JustasthefirstBrettonWoodssystemrestedona“grandbargain”betweentheUSandBritain，anewBrettonWoodswouldtestthestatesmanshipoft

4、heUSandChina.TheProblemofGlobalImbalancesAstheworldtentativelyscrambles『快速爬行/匍匍前进/攀登loutoftheworstrecessionsinceWorldWarII,thefutureoftheworldmonetarysystemremainsfirmlyofftheagenda.Theglobaldownturnhadmanyinteractingcauses,butatenable［站得住脚的；合理的Jviewisthatthea

5、ccumulationofreservesbyahandfulofcountriesinEastAsiaandtheMiddleEastplayedakeypermissiveroleinthecollapse.Between2003and2009(measurable)globalreservesincreasedfrom$2.6trillionto$6.8trillion-anaverageannualrateofincreaseofabout15%,atatimewhenglobalGDPgrewatanan

6、nualrateof4.4%.Thisamountedtoabigincreaseindeflationarypressure.However，thefactthatthereserveswereheldmainlyindollarsallowedtheUStoavoiddeflation,andinsteadruna“Keynesian”domesticpolicywhichsetthestageforanunsustainableassetandconsumptionboom.Inshort，therewasa

7、nexusconnectingreserveaccumulationbyChinaandexpansionarymonetaryandfiscalpolicyintheUS.ThepurposeofthischapteristohowthattheKeynesPlanof1941fordealingwiththetradeimbalancesofhistimeishighlyrelevanttotheproblemofEastAsian-USimbalancestoday.Itproposestwomechanis

8、msforalleviatingthecurrentproblemof“symmetricalnon-adjustment”.ThefirstpartoftheessaywillexaminethehistoricalcontextoftheKeynesPlanandthebreakdownoftheBrettonWoodssystem;thesecondwillanalysethepresentproblemofnon-adjustmentandstepswhichcanbetakentoovercomeit.T

9、heKeynesPlanof1941Inthe1920sKeyneshadcometoseedeflationasthemaincauseofBritishunemployment;andthemainsourceofdeflationarypressureastheunbalancedcreditorpositionoftheUS.Intheory，the