基于双层bp神经网络光伏电站输出功率预测

《基于双层bp神经网络光伏电站输出功率预测》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。

1、第XX卷第XXX期电测与仪表Vol.XXNo.XXX20XX年第XX期ElectricalMeasurement&InstrumentationXXX.20XX基于双层BP神经网络的光伏电站输出功率预测张立影，王泽忠（华北电力大学电子与电子工程学院，北京102206）摘要：光伏电站输出功率对电网调度有很大影响，但受到太阳辐射强度和气象因素的影响，光伏电站输出功率具有随机性和不可控性。为合理利用光伏发电系统，本文建立一种基于气象预测信息以及BP神经网络的光伏电站输出功率预测模型。通过相关性分析确定影响光伏出力的影响因子，结合历史数据和气象因素进行模型训练和功率预测。本文

2、主要提出一种新的预测模型-双层BP神经网络模型，通过对某光伏电站预测结果与实测值对比，结果表明该方法能有效提高光伏电站输出功率预测精度，对发电计划的制定有较好的参考价值和实用价值。关键词：光伏电站；功率预测；双层BP神经网络；相关性；气象预测信息中图分类号：TM615文献标识码：A文章编号：1001-1390（2014）00-0000-00APhotovoltaicPowerStationOutputPowerPredictionApproachBasedontheDoubleBPNeuralNetworkZHANGLi-ying,WANGZe-zhong(Schoo

3、lofElectricalandElectronicEngineering,NorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity,Beijing102206,China)Abstract：Photovoltaicpowerstationoutputpowerhasagreatinfluencetoonpowergriddispatching,butthephotovoltaicpowerstationoutputpowerisrandomandnotuncontrollable,andaffectedbyduetotheintensityofsolarr

4、adiationandmeteorologicalfactors.ForInordertomakereasonableuseofthephotovoltaicpowergenerationsystems,aBPneuralnetworkforecastingphotovoltaicpowerstationoutputpowermodelmodebasedonweatherforecastinformationandtheBPneuralnetworkiswasproposedinthepapertopredictPVsystemoutputpower.Theinflu

5、entialfactorsofPVstationoutputpowerisweredeterminedthroughcorrelationanalysis.Themodeltrainingandpowerpredictionmodelarewereprocessedcombinedbycombinationwithhistoricaldataandmeteorologicalfactors.Anewforecastingmodel-,thedoubleBPneuralnetworkmodel,iswasproposedinthispaper.Thepredictedr

6、esultsofaphotovoltaicpowerstationpredictedresultsandwerecomparedwiththemeasuredvaluesarecompared.TheresultsshowedthatthemethodcancouldeffectivelyimprovethepredictiveaccuracyofthePVstationoutputpowerandhashadgoodreferencevaluesandpracticalvaluestopowergenerationplanning.Keywords：photovol

7、taicpowerstation,powerforecasting,doubleBPneuralnetworkmodel,correlation,weatherforecastinformation-1-第XX卷第XXX期电测与仪表Vol.XXNo.XXX20XX年第XX期ElectricalMeasurement&InstrumentationXXX.20XX0　引言-1-第XX卷第XXX期电测与仪表Vol.XXNo.XXX20XX年第XX期ElectricalMeasurement&InstrumentationXXX.20XX近年来，能源危机日