中情局对苏联的分析:1947-1991

中情局对苏联的分析:1947-1991

ID:18247082

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时间:2018-09-16

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1、PrefaceControversyovertheperformanceoftheCentralIntelligenceAgencyduringtheColdWarhasragedsincethefalloftheBerlinWallandthesubsequentcollapseoftheSovietUnion.Fromitsoriginsin1947,theAgencyhad,asoneofitsmajormissions,theresponsibilityofanalyzingandexplainingtheintentionsandcapabilitiesof

2、theSovietUniontoUSpolicymakers.Itwasadauntingtask.Atightlycontrolledsociety,theSovietUnionpresentedCIAanalystswithmajorchallengesastheystruggledtomakesenseofitspolitical,economic,military,andscientificdevelopments.CIAwasnotalwayscorrectinitsanalysisbuttheAgency,overthedecades,madeauniqu

3、econtributioninhelpingUSpolicymakersunderstandAmerica’smajoradversary.Asalongtimeintelligenceanalyst,thenDeputyDirectorforIntelligence,andfinallyDirectorofCentralIntelligence,IspentmuchofmycareerwatchingandanalyzingtheSovietUnion.Inmyjudgment,overall,theCIAperformedadmirablyinmeetingthe

4、challengesofassessingSovietstrengthsandweaknesses.Othersdisagree.IhavealwaysbelievedthattherecordofactualintelligenceassessmentsrepresentsthebestdefenseofCIA’sandtheIntelligenceCommunity’sanalyticalperformancevis-à-vistheUSSR–thegood,thebadandtheugly.Thus,asDCI,Ibeganthesystematicproces

5、sofdeclassifyingintelligenceassessmentsfromtheColdWar,beginningwithallNationalIntelligenceEstimatesontheUSSR.Mysuccessorshavecontinuedthisprocess.ThislatestcompilationofkeydocumentsfromCIA’sfilesandtherelateddeclassificationandreleaseofalargeamountofnewmaterialonCIAanalysisoftheUSSRwill

6、furtherhelpscholarsandthepublicassessforthemselvesCIA’sanalyticalperformanceduringtheColdWar.Makingthesematerialsavailabletoeveryoneisamajorstepinfurtheringthedialogue.ResearchersmaynowjudgetheaccuracyofCIAforecastsandwiththatjudgmentgaindeeperinsightintotheimpactofCIAanalysisonUSpolicy

7、makers.Asastrongbelieveringovernmentopenness,IapplaudthiseffortandlookforwardtocontinuingdeclassificationandreleaseprogramsbytheAgency.RobertM.Gates,formerDirectorofCentralIntelligencevii                  

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