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1、PrefaceControversyovertheperformanceoftheCentralIntelligenceAgencyduringtheColdWarhasragedsincethefalloftheBerlinWallandthesubsequentcollapseoftheSovietUnion.Fromitsoriginsin1947,theAgencyhad,asoneofitsmajormissions,theresponsibilityofanalyzingandexplainingtheintentionsandcapabilitiesof
2、theSovietUniontoUSpolicymakers.Itwasadauntingtask.Atightlycontrolledsociety,theSovietUnionpresentedCIAanalystswithmajorchallengesastheystruggledtomakesenseofitspolitical,economic,military,andscientificdevelopments.CIAwasnotalwayscorrectinitsanalysisbuttheAgency,overthedecades,madeauniqu
3、econtributioninhelpingUSpolicymakersunderstandAmerica’smajoradversary.Asalongtimeintelligenceanalyst,thenDeputyDirectorforIntelligence,andfinallyDirectorofCentralIntelligence,IspentmuchofmycareerwatchingandanalyzingtheSovietUnion.Inmyjudgment,overall,theCIAperformedadmirablyinmeetingthe
4、challengesofassessingSovietstrengthsandweaknesses.Othersdisagree.IhavealwaysbelievedthattherecordofactualintelligenceassessmentsrepresentsthebestdefenseofCIA’sandtheIntelligenceCommunity’sanalyticalperformancevis-à-vistheUSSR–thegood,thebadandtheugly.Thus,asDCI,Ibeganthesystematicproces
5、sofdeclassifyingintelligenceassessmentsfromtheColdWar,beginningwithallNationalIntelligenceEstimatesontheUSSR.Mysuccessorshavecontinuedthisprocess.ThislatestcompilationofkeydocumentsfromCIA’sfilesandtherelateddeclassificationandreleaseofalargeamountofnewmaterialonCIAanalysisoftheUSSRwill
6、furtherhelpscholarsandthepublicassessforthemselvesCIA’sanalyticalperformanceduringtheColdWar.Makingthesematerialsavailabletoeveryoneisamajorstepinfurtheringthedialogue.ResearchersmaynowjudgetheaccuracyofCIAforecastsandwiththatjudgmentgaindeeperinsightintotheimpactofCIAanalysisonUSpolicy
7、makers.Asastrongbelieveringovernmentopenness,IapplaudthiseffortandlookforwardtocontinuingdeclassificationandreleaseprogramsbytheAgency.RobertM.Gates,formerDirectorofCentralIntelligencevii
