PPP模式下产业新城风险与投资决策研究

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1、密级公开分类号F426工程硕士学位论文PPP模式下产业新城风险与投资决策研究武艳指导教师闫莉教授刘全生高工申请学位级别工程硕士工程领域工业工程2018年5月6日项目投资决策支持系统，通过该系统在H公司PPP项目中的应用，为公司投资决策提供支持与参考。关键词：PPP模式；产业新城；风险评价；蒙特卡洛模拟；投资决策支持系统matter-elementmodelwasconstructedtoanalyzeandevaluatethe20riskfactors,andgetthekeyriskfactorswhichaffecttheinvestmentdec

2、isionoftheproject.Secondly,determineinvestmentboundaryconditions.CombinedwithrelateddataandindustryinformationofGCountyIndustrialPPPproject,thecapitalassetpricingmodel(CAPM)wasusedtocalculatethebenchmarkreturnlevelofindustrialrealestateindustry(Re).Thenprobabilitydistributionoffo

3、urriskfactorswhichcanbequantifiedwaspredicted.AlsotheMonteCarlosimulationisusedtoknowthechangeofnetpresentvalueandinternalrateofreturnunderdifferentrisks.Comparedwith(Re),theboundaryconditionofinvestmentiscalculated.Finally,developinvestmentdecisionsupportsystem.TheC#languageandS

4、QLServer2012databasewereusedforHCompanytodevelopPPPprojectinvestmentdecisionsupportsystem,theapplicationofthissysteminHcompanyPPPprojectprovidessupportandreferenceforcompanyinvestmentdecision.KeyWords:PPPmode;industrialnewcity;Riskassessment;MonteCarlosimulation;Investmentdecisio

5、nsupportsystem目录1绪论............................................................................................................................................11.1研究背景及意义..............................................................................................................

6、.11.1.1研究背景..................................................................................................................11.1.2研究意义..................................................................................................................11.2国内外研究现状....................

7、...........................................................................................21.2.1风险管理国内外研究现状......................................................................................21.2.2投资决策国内外研究现状.....................................................................

8、.................41.3论文主要目的及内容..........