美股商业与专业服务业-抵押贷款与金融租赁的现状

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1、COREForYour‘InformationServices’Lightstartto3Qissuance(MCO/SPGI);INDUSTRYUPDATEEquityResearch6August2018StatusquoinmtgeandfinancialhiringCreditIssuance(MCO/SPGI):Early3Qisseasonallyslowanywaywithearningsblackoutsandthenthetypicalsummerslowdown,butinthatcontextJulyissuancewasstilllight

2、(-14%y/yacrossassetclasseswetrack)…U.S.IG/HYsawtheirslowestmonthsoftheyear(-47%/-32%),butthereweresomebrightspots–suchasU.S.structured(CMBS+14%,CLOs+11%,ABS+35%),Euro-IG(+36%)andU.S.munis(+16%againsteasingcomps).Wefeelcomfortablestickingwithour+1-2%growthestimatesforMCO/SPGIRatingsin3Q–

3、notingthatthequarterisreallydeterminedbySeptember(whichmadeup~45%ofsupplylastyear).…butweremainconstructiveontheRatingAgencies,especiallyafterthepost-earningspullback(MCO/SPGI-8%vs.SPX-1%).Bothhadsolid2Qs–withMCOshowingstrongerRatingsgrowth(+10%vs.+4%)butSPGIshowingmoreproductivity-driv

4、enRatingsmarginexpansion(+415bpsvs.+260bps).WethinkrecentstockweaknessislikelyduetostrongYTDperformanceplusconcernsover2Hissuanceoutlook(asneithertouchedFY18guidance).Inourview,thisisnotmuchdifferentfromwhatwesawheadinginto1H–whenbothcompanieswereabletogrowdespiteamixedbackdrop.Wecontin

5、uetolikebothnames,andwoulduseanyfurtherissuance-drivenpullbacksasbuyingopportunities.MortgageOriginations(EFX/TRU/FICO):Outlookisunchanged,withratehikescontemplatedinMBA’sforecastof-6%declinesin2018(purchase+4%,refi-23%),and3Q(-5%)isexpectedtoshowsimilarmodestvolumedeclinesas1H.Mortgage

6、hasactuallybeenatailwindforthecreditbureausYTD–withEXPNlaunchingitsFNMAtrendeddataproduct;FICObenefitingfrommortgagepricinguplift(supporting+42%B2BscoresgrowthinF3Q);andEFXgrowingmortgage+8%in2Qdespiteinquiriesdown-5%(supportedbygrowthinWorkforceSolutionspluspricingintri-bureaureportswi

7、thEXPNtrendeddataupgrade).MortgagehasnotbeenamaterialcalloutforTRUonewayortheother.NotethatEFXexpectsabiggerheadwindin2HthanMBAforecasts–callingfor~HSDvolumedeclinesin3Qandworsein4Q.U.S.FinancialServicesHiring(FDS/TRI/SPGI):Healthyhiringtrends,butoutlookismixed...YTDhiringhastr