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1、广东药学院本科毕业论文(设计)广东省八个城市的人口动态分析学院广东药学院专业预防医学年级2001级学生姓名蔡永明学号2001021725带教单位社会医学与卫生管理教研室指导教师张瑛副教授张东枚老师2006年6月5日otherstaffoftheCentre.Duringthewar,ZhuwastransferredbacktoJiangxi,andDirectorofthenewOfficeinJingdezhen,JiangxiCommitteeSecretary.Startingin1939servedasrecorderoftheWestNorthOr
2、ganization,SecretaryoftheSpecialCommitteeAfterthevictoryofthelongMarch,hehasbeentheNorthwestOfficeoftheFederationofStateenterprisesMinister,ShenmufuguSARmissions,DirectorofNingxiaCountypartyCommitteeSecretaryandrecorderoftheCountypartyCommitteeSecretary,Ministersand摘要目的:通过对我省人口数量及其自
3、然增长率作出科学的分析,掌握其发展动态,有利于宏观经济、教育政策的制定,也为我省作出客观的人口控制政策提供了有力依据。方法:收集广州、佛山、中山、揭东、四会、顺德、番禺、英德等广东八个城市的人口资料,整理后运用动态数列和聚类分析方法进行统计分析。结果:1998~2002年广东八个城市人口平均增长速度在1.20~6.97%之间;大多数城市自然增长率保持平稳略有下降,但部分城市仍居高不下(如顺德、揭东);以人口自然增长率平均增长速度、出生率平均增长速度、死亡率平均发展速度为变量对八个城市聚类可将其分为四类。结论:目前我省人口发展处于稳步增长状态,自然增长率逐步下降
4、,一定时期内人口数量仍然保持在较高水平,人口控制工作仍然不能放松。关键词:人口数量自然增长率人口分析AbstractThroughmakesthesciencetoourprovincepopulationquantityandthenaturalrateofgrowththeanalysis,Graspsitsdevelopmenttendency,isadvantageousinthemacroscopiceconomical,theeducationpolicyformulation,alsomadetheobjectivepopulationcontr
5、olpolicyforourprovincetoprovidethepowerfulbasis.Methods:CollectsGuangzhou,Foshan,Zhongshan,Jiedong,sihui,Shunde,Panyu,Yingdepopulationmaterials,Afterthereorganizationutilizesthedynamicseriesandtheclusteranalysismethodcarriesonthestatisticalanalysis.Results:1998~2002yearGuangdongeigh
6、turbanpopulationaveragerateofgrowthin11.97~69.72‰between;Themajoritycitynaturalrateofgrowthmaintainssteadilyhadthedropslightlyeast,butthepartialcitiesstillstayedatahighlevellikeShunde,Jiedong;Taketherateofnaturalpopulationgrowthaveragerateofgrowth,thebirthrateaveragerateofgrowth,the
7、mortalityrateaveragerateofgrowthmaydivideintoasthevariabletoeightcityclustersitfourkinds.onclusion:Atpresentourprovincepopulationdevelopmentisatgrowswithsteadystepsthecondition,Thenaturalrateofgrowthdropsgradually,Incertaintimepopulationquantitystillmaintainedisteachingthehighlevel,
8、thepopulationcontro