conditional convergence and the solow model an empirical study条件收敛和索洛模型的实证研究

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1、ConditionalConvergenceandtheSolowModel:anEmpiricalStudyErasmusUniversityRotterdamRotterdamSchoolofEconomicsDepartmentofEconomicsM.V.TimakovaStudentNumber:302900Supervisor:Prof.Dr.G.Facchini29July201156

2、PageAcknowledgementsBeforeIbegin,Iwouldliketotakethisopportunitytothankanumberofpeo

3、plefortheirhelpandsupportthroughouttheprocessofwritingthisthesis.Firstofall,Iwouldliketoexpressmydeepestgratitudetomysupervisor,Prof.G.Facchini,whohashelpedmestructuremyresearchandprovidedvaluablecommentsandadvice,wheneverthiswasnecessary.Iamalsoverygratefultomyparentsfortheircontinuo

4、ussupport.56

5、PageAbstractThispaperexplorestheempiricalevidenceonconditionalconvergence.Itusescross-countrydatafor86countriesovertheperiodof45years(1960-2005).ThepaperusestheSolowmodelasthebasisfortheanalysis.Wefindthatthedatadoesnotsupportthepresenceofabsoluteconvergence,butthereisins

6、teadevidencetoconfirmtheexistenceofconvergenceconditionaloninvestmentandpopulationgrowth,aswellashumancapital.Theresultsalsoshowthatanumberofadditionalvariablesdonotaccountformuchofthevariationininternationalincomegrowthlevels.56

7、PageContentsAcknowledgements2Abstract3Chapter1Introduct

8、ion3Chapter2Economicgrowthandconvergence,theSolowmodel32.1ThebasicSolowmodel32.2ConditionalversusAbsoluteconvergence3Chapter3Dynamicsofthemodel33.1Definingeconomicgrowth33.2Demographictrends33.3ForeignDirectInvestment33.4Trade(Openness)33.5.GovernmentExpenditure33.6PoliticalSituation3

9、3.7Naturalresources3Chapter4Methodology34.1Themainvariables34.2SecondaryVariables34.3CountryClassifications3Chapter5TheEmpiricalImplicationsoftheSolowmodel35.1BasicSolowmodel35.2Solowmodelwithhumancapital35.3Solowmodelandconvergence3Chapter6Results36.1Preliminaryresults36.2Absoluteand

10、ConditionalConvergence36.3Convergencewithadditionalvariables36.4Summaryoftheresults3Chapter7Finalremarks3Bibliography356

11、PageAppendixI3AppendixII3Chapter1IntroductionWhydocountriesgrowatdifferentrates?Isthereconvergenceingrowthratesamongcountriesandmoregenerally,howcanthecountriesincr

12、easet