【环球外汇】双语阅读：货币政策可能打击其赢家

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双语阅读：货币政策可能打击其赢家环球外汇全球央行行长的举动在决定股市的表现方面超越了其他所有的议题。虽然大量的议题——包括中国和美国的经济增长，欧洲议会选举和美国债务上限迅速接近最后期限等——都将影响舆论，但货币政策占据了中心舞台。一个人只要查看最近在日本发生的事件就会意识到，货币政策是当前股市的灵丹妙药。日本股市是全球股市中的休伊特(LleytonHewitt)。每年休伊特赢得一连串通往大满贯的比赛时，澳大利亚球迷就会十分兴奋。头条大吼着休伊特如何找回过去的荣誉，百折不挠。而基本面消息总是利好上届冠军，他只是匆匆离场。日本股市看似在一年的每个月里都给投资者同样的希望，正如评论家自1990年起就喊着熊市结束一样。市场要求的多些，因为基本面没有经济增长，人口老龄化和强势货币不断将市场拉回熊市。在这一背景下，投资者还是使基准日经指数自11月中旬以来提升了23%左右，真让人惊喜不已。其催化剂是自由民主党当选。该党承诺将通过飓风印钞使日本摆脱经济停滞。该党设定了2%的通胀和日元走弱的目标。尽管日本已经印钞超过10年，也积累了世界上最高水平的政府债务，投资者却不断涌入日本股市。最新的刺激政策显然几乎没有长期成功的可能性。除非它润滑了私营部门的经济增长引擎，否则日本经济将继续随日元的变动起起伏伏。尽管最新一轮政府刺激强调的是，宽松的货币和财政政策是全球股票市场的头号驱动力。投资者也不能忽视了这一现象。自2008-2009年经济大萧条以来，美国的经济增长一直较为羸弱，但美联储向系统中注入了足够的钱，在不到四年的时间里，推动股票市场上扬了巨大的121%。投资者乐于支持流动性赌局，最终，不像日本，基本面有所提高。时间将证明一切，结算日已近在咫尺，但在那之前股票价格仍将攀升。美国10年期债券交易仍处于1.8%，美国股票市场估值高于其长期平均市盈率的15倍仍是可行的。美国投资者面临的大难题是要找出货币政策收紧时，债券利率何时开始走高。美联储已经制定了未来的蓝图，表示如果失业率从目前的7.8%下降到7.2%左右，印钞将停止；当失业率达到6.5%时，利率将逐渐上调。在这种情况下，经济增长可能会加快，但市盈率会降低，股票市场将陷入挣扎之中。随着美国的经济数据逐渐增强，货币政策的转变可能会出现在2013年年末。 对于欧洲来说，宽松的货币政策使得德国、英国和法国的股市在过去的16个月里迅速上涨了26%到47%。与此同时，自从欧洲央行表示将印钞以避免灾难以来，意大利和西班牙股市飙升了44%。欧洲和日本一样，都是行尸走肉。最终，基本面停滞不前，人口老龄化和相对生产力逐步下降将导致宽松的货币政策带来的好处逐渐褪色。澳大利亚最近也加入了货币政策游戏，股市得到了支撑。14个月来，澳洲联储已削减了175个基点的官方利率。投资者没有立即反应，但2012年6月以来，市场健康上涨了15%，这引发了对盈利潜能良好的状况下，市盈率越来越贵的担忧。公司业绩对长期股价来说是至关重要的，但短期(12到18个月)内，投资者将购买相较于利率而言价格较低的股票。除此之外，还有什么能解释上周失业率跳升至5.4%，国内股市却反弹了呢?温和的经济数据被视为澳洲联储在2月或3月削减官方利率的绿灯。由于在圣诞节/新年期间公布的经济数据令人失望，债券市场已经开始打赌2013年会降息一次，25个基点，或有可能两次降息，共50个基点。最终结果是自11月底以来，股市提升了6%。全球投资者的行为强烈表明，2013年将再次成为由货币政策决定的一年。对一些人来说，紧缩政策将导致股票估值下降，而对另一些，如澳大利亚而言，这将于澳洲联储能宽松到什么程度有关。目前，糟糕的经济消息意味着更低的利率和更高的股票价格。信息很明确：密切关注澳洲联储主席史蒂文斯(GlennStevens)在未来的几周内会说些什么。MonetarypolicyofferschancetohitwinnersTHEactionsofcentralbankersaroundtheglobewilltrumpallotherissuesindeterminingtheperformanceofsharemarketsin2013.Whilearaftoftopics-includingChineseandUSeconomicgrowth,EuropeanelectionsandthefastapproachingdeadlineontheUSdebtceiling-willallswayopinion,itwillbemonetarypolicythattakescentrestage.OneonlyhastolookatrecenteventsinJapantorealisethatmonetarypolicyisthecurrentelixirofstockmarkets.JapanistheLleytonHewittofglobalequitymarkets.AustraliantennisfansarebesidethemselveseveryyearasHewittwinsastringofmatchesleadingintoagrandslamcompetition.TheheadlinesbellowhowHewittcanrecapturepastgloriesandgoalltheway.Invariablythefundamentalscatchuptotheformerchampionandheisbundledout. TheJapanesesharemarketseeminglyfillsinvestorswiththesamehopeaboutevery12months,ascommentatorscallanendtothebearmarketthatbeganin1990.Themarketbrieflychargeshigheronlyforthefundamentalsofnoeconomicgrowth,ageingpopulationandastrongcurrencyworkingtolurethebearsbackintothegame.Withthisbackdrop,itcomesassomesurprisethatinvestorshaveshuntedthebenchmarkNikkeiindexsome23percenthighersincemid-November.ThecatalysthasbeentheelectionoftheLiberalDemocratParty,whichhadrunonapromisetoinflateJapanoutofitseconomicstuporthroughatsunamiofmoneyprinting.Thepartytargeted2percentinflationandaweakeryen.DespiteJapanalreadyprintingmoneyformorethanadecadeandrackingupthehighestlevelofgovernmentdebtontheplanet,investorspiledintotheJapanesesharemarket.Itisobviousthelateststimuluspolicyhasnexttonochanceofsucceedinglongerterm.Unlessitlubricatestheenginesofprivatesectoreconomicgrowth,theJapaneseeconomywillcontinuetoridethegyrationsoftheyen.Whatthelatestroundofgovernmentstimulusdoesemphasise,though,isthatloosemonetaryandfiscalpoliciesaretheNo.1driversofequitymarketsaroundtheglobe.Andinvestorscan'taffordtoignorethisphenomenon.EconomicgrowthintheUShasbeenpallidsincethegreatrecessionof2008-09butstilltheFederalReservehaspumpedenoughmoneyintothesystemtopushequitymarketsupathumping121percentinlessthanfouryears.Investorsarehappytogoalongfortheliquidityridebettingthateventually,unlikeJapan,thefundamentalswillimprove.Onlytimewilltellandadayofreckoningisnearathand,butuntilthensharepricesgrindhigher.WiththeUS10-yearbondstilltradingatjust1.8percent,itisquitefeasibletovaluetheUSsharemarketaboveitslong-termaveragepricetoearningsmultipleof15times.ThebigconundrumforUSinvestorsisworkingoutwhenbondrateswillstarttomovehigheronthebackoftightermonetarypolicy.TheFedhaslaidoutablueprintforthefuturebysayingthatmoneyprintingwillstopifunemploymentfallsfromthecurrent7.8percenttoaround7.2percentandinterestrateswillberatchetedupwhenunemploymenthits6.5percent.Underthisscenarioeconomicgrowthmayjumpbutpricetoearningsmultipleswillcompressandthesharemarketwillstruggle.WithUSeconomicdatastrengthening,thischangeinmonetarypolicycouldstarttotakeholdinlate2013. InthecaseofEurope,loosemonetarypolicyhasseentheGerman,EnglishandFrenchmarketsrocketbetween26percentand47percenthigherinthepast16months.Meanwhile,ItalyandSpainhavebothspiked44percentsincetheEuropeanCentralBanksaiditwouldprintmoneytoavoiddisasters.Europe,likeJapan,isadeadmanwalking.Eventuallythefundamentalsofastagnant,ageingpopulationanddecliningrelativeproductivitywillseethebenefitsofanindulgentmonetarypolicyfade.Australiahasalsorecentlyjoinedthemonetarypolicygameandthestockmarkethasfounditslegs.TheReserveBankofAustraliahascutofficialinterestrates175basispointsin14months.InvestorsdidnotrespondimmediatelybutsinceJune2012ourmarkethasrisenahealthy15percent,creatingconcernsthatequitiesaregettingexpensiveonaprice-to-earningsmultiplewithabenignearningsoutlook.Companyearningsarealwayscriticaltothepriceofasharemarketinthelongerrunbutintheshorterterm(12to18months)investorswillbuyequitiesiftheyarecheapcomparedtointerestrates.Howelsecanyouexplainthekickinthedomesticsharemarketlastweekwhentheunemploymentratejumpedto5.4percent?ThesofteconomicdatawasseenasagreenlightfortheRBAtocutofficialinterestrateseitherinFebruaryorMarch.AstheeconomicdatahasdisappointedduringtheChristmas/NewYearperiodthebondmarkethasgonefrombettingononeinterestcutof25basispointsin2013topossiblytwocutstotalling50basispoints.Thenetresulthasbeena6percentliftinthesharemarketsincetheendofNovember.Thebehaviourofinvestorsaroundtheglobestronglysuggeststhat2013willbeayeardeterminedonceagainbymonetarypolicy.Forsomeitcouldseepolicytighteningcausingequityvaluationstofall,whileforotherssuchasAustraliaitisallabouthowloosewilltheRBAget.Forthemomentpooreconomicnewsmeanslowerinterestratesandhigherequityprices.Themessageisclear:keepacloseeyeonwhatRBAgovernorGlennStevenshastosayinthecomingweeks.