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1、June21,201807:40PMGMT28FXPulseMORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLCHansWRedekerSTRATEGIST28USDRevision:HigherforLongerHans.Redeker@morganstanley.com+44207425-2430STRATEGISTJames.Lord@morganstanley.com+44207677-3254Fromflowstowardstrade:WeseeUSDrallyingfurtherfrom
2、hereagainsttheSheenaShahbackgroundoftighteninggloballiquidityandweakeningriskappetite,andreviseSheena.Shah@morganstanley.com+44207677-6457ourUSDprojectionsaccordingly.Theliquidity"blanket"isbecomingshorterandnolongercoversallmarkets,puttingweakercreditsunderpr
3、essure.WhatbeganMinDaiSTRATEGISTMin.Dai@morganstanley.com+44207425-4381inARSspreadtoTRY,ZAR,andBRLhassincebroadenedtoEMasawhole.GekTengKhooTradeconcernsbutalsoEMcapitaloutflowsweakenedtheEMgrowthoutlook.EMhasmoredownside:Ourforecastrevisionsaremostnoticeablein
4、EMandcommoditycurrencies.PastbearmarketcyclesoftensawAXJoutperformingduetotheregion'sexternalsurpluses.However,withvollikelybreakinghigherandsharepricesfalling,wehaverevisedourAXJprojectionssharplylower.JPYshouldoutperformtheG10,includingUSD.EURshouldtradewith
5、aslightlybearishtiltinto3Qbutshouldsubsequentlybeginitsbulltrendagain.PuttingtheUSDrallyintoperspective:Notwithstanding,wecontinuetoviewthecurrentUSDrallyinthecontextofasecularbearmarket.USDstayssupportedaslongasitsrisingcapitalimportneedsfindforeigninvestorss
6、eekingyieldandreturns.IfRoWgrowthfailstoacceleratefromhere,whichseemslikelyfornow,giventhescaleofthecapitaloutflows,theUSeconomyslowingwouldbetheUSDsellingsignal.Aflatteryieldcurvemaybeshort-termUSD-supportive,asthereducedincentiveformaturitytransformationpush
7、esUSDdemandintotheFXmarket,butultimatelyitisalate-cyclesignalandsuggestsslowinggrowth.Inthisenvironment,theUSmayfinditmoredifficulttoattractsufficientforeigndeficit-financingcapital,atwhichpointUSDwouldresumeitssell-off.FXvolatilitytorise:AstrongerUSD,declinin
8、ggloballiquidity,andevolvingmonetarypoliciesarecatalystsforhighervolatility.OurnewframeworklaunchedthisweeksuggestsgoinglongCAD,AUD,andJPYvolatility.Exhibit1:CurrenttradeportfolioC
