资本流入新兴市场土耳其[文献翻译]

《资本流入新兴市场土耳其[文献翻译]》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目：CapitalFlowstoanEmergingMarketinTurkey出处：InternationalAdvancesinEconomicResearch,2003,Volume9,Number3,Pages189-195作者：SaziyeGazioglu原文：CapitalFlowstoanEmergingMarketinTurkeyAbstractIncreasedgIobalizationinfinancialmarketsimpliesthatthepercentageofallsharesunderforeignowner

2、shipindomesticstockmarketshasbeenrising.SpeculativeattacksontheforeignexchangemarketinFebruary2001ledtodeepeconomiccrisisinTurkey.ThisarticlewillexplorevariousindicatorsofthefinancialcrisisinTurkeybasedonamacro-model.Theforeignshareofthedomesticeconomyisakeyvariabletoestablishthedegreeo

3、fvulnerabilityduringafinancialcrisis.AnempiricalinvestigationshowsthatthepercentageofsharesownedbyforeignersontheIstanbulStockExchange(ISE)hasbeenincreasingsince1995andiscurrentlyabout50percentofthetotal.Furthermore,thegeneralindexofstockmarketpricesin1999wasatitshighestlevelsincei995.T

4、hiswouldimplythatthegeneralpriceindexofthestockmarketisanotherstrongindicatorofanimpendingfinancialcrisis.AnempiricalinvestigationofTurkishdatabasedonatheoreticalmodelispresentedinthispaper.Anunexpectedcapitaloutflowwouldcertainlycauseexchangeratefluctuations,balanceofpaymentsproblems,a

5、ndinternationaldebtcrisis.Hotmoneyinflowsboostsharepricesandkeeptherealexchangeratehigh.However,short-termstayofcapitalimpliesasuddencapitaloutflowthatcreatesfinancialcrisis,whichresultsininternationaldebtcrisis.ThisinturnleadstoafurtherincreaseinloansfromtheInternationalMonetaryFund(IM

6、F).Relativelyhighstockmarketpricesmaysuggestanimpendingfinancialcrisis.UsingTurkishstockmarketpricedata,animpendingfinancialcrisiscanbestatisticallypredicted.(JELE60,F32,F34,F36,F40,G15)IntroductionMuchworkhasbeendoneintheareaoffinancialcrisis.Johnsonetal.[2000]createdavulnerabilitymatr

7、ixusingsetsofcriteriaincludingmacroindicators.Othertheoriesofcrisisincludespeculativeattacks[Krugmanetal.1979],andself-fulfillinghypotheses[Obstfelt,1995].Otherworksincludefundamentals,thesecondgenerationsmodelmoralhazard,andself-fulfillingexpectationsmodelsonliquidity.Krugman[