基于面板数据的中国贸易弹性估计(china estimated trade elasticities based on panel data)

基于面板数据的中国贸易弹性估计(china estimated trade elasticities based on panel data)

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时间:2018-08-03

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1、基于面板数据的中国贸易弹性估计(ChinaestimatedTradeElasticitiesbasedonPanelData)Abstract:usingpaneldataof1990-2005yearsChinaand20majortradingcountriesandregions,notcompletelyreplacetheempiricalmodelbasedonthetheory,priceandincomeelasticityusingpaneldataunitrootandcointegrationtechniqueto

2、estimatetheChineseforeigntrade.Theresultsshowthattheimportandexporttradeonthepriceisinelastic,fromtheincomeelasticityofimportdemand,theincomeelasticityislessthan2,theincomeelasticityofexportsiscloseto5,exportsrelativetoimportshasalargerincomeelasticity,whichisthemaincause

3、inthecontextoftheglobalfinancialcrisisChinesetradesituationreversed.Keywords:foreigntrade;incomeelasticity;priceelasticityCLCnumber:F752documentidentificationcode:Aarticlenumber:1003-3890(2010)09-0005-04First,theresearchbackgroundandliteraturereviewSinceChinajoinedtheWTOa

4、ttheendof2001,China'sforeigntradevolumehasincreasedbymorethan20%overthepastfewyears.Meanwhile,thetradesurplushasmaintainedafastergrowthrate.China'stradesurpluswas$177billion500millionin2006,reaching$262billion200millionin2007,anincreaseofnearly50%.Withtherapidgrowthofexpo

5、rttrade,China'sforeignexchangeearningscontinuetoincrease,whileothercountrieshavetobearthehugetradedeficitmadebychina.Inordertoeaseandreversetheworseningtradeenvironment,China'stradingpartners,inadditiontotheanti-dumpingmeasurestopunishChineseenterprises,morefocusedontheap

6、preciationofthermb.Duringtheperiod,theRMBexchangeratealsoreachedahighlevel,breakingthroughthe1:7mark.However,contrarytotheexpectationofChina'stradingpartners,China'simportandexporthasnotbeenaffectedmuchduringthisperiod,andtheexporttradecontinuedtomaintainagrowthrateof20%.

7、Enteredin2008,beganintheglobalfinancialcrisisspread,mostoftheworldcountriesandregionshavebeenaffected,theeconomyofvariouscountriesandregionsshoweddifferentdegreesofdecline,affectedbyglobaldemand,NovembermonthlygrossimportandexportofanegativegrowthforthefirsttimesinceOctob

8、er2001.ThedevelopmentofChina'stradeandtherecentchangeshavearousedwidespreadconcernintheinternati

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