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1、------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------基于改进CFD与小波混合神经网络组合的风电场功率预测方法_崔嘉第41卷第1期2017年1月电网技术PowerSystemTechnologyVol.41No.1Jan.2017文章编号:1000-3673(2017)01-0079-07中图分类号:TM715文献标志码:A学科代码:470·40基于改进CFD与小波混合
2、神经网络组合的风电场功率预测方法崔嘉1a,杨俊友1a,杨理践1b,高凯旻1a,宋志成1a,高子昂2(1.沈阳工业大学a.电气工程学院,b.信息科学与工程学院,辽宁省沈阳市110870;2.东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林省吉林市132012)NewMethodofCombinedWindPowerForecastingBasedonImprovedCFDandWavelet-HNNModelCUIJia1a,YANGJunyou1a,YANGLijian1b,GAOKaimin1a,SONGZhicheng
3、1a,GAOZiang2(1.a.SchoolofElectricalEngineering,b.SchoolofInformationScienceandEngineering,ShenyangUniversityofTechnology,Shenyang110870,LiaoningProvince,China;——————————————————————————————————————----------------------------------------------------------
4、--------------------------------------2.SchoolofElectricalEngineering,NortheastElectricPowerUniversity,Jilin132012,JilinProvince,China)ABSTRACT:Time-dependencyandintermittenceofwindpowerimpactsenergybalancebetweenwindpoweroutputandloadinpowersysteminreal-
5、time.Accuratewindpowerforecastishelpfultoreducespinningreservecapacityandmakereasonablemaintenanceplan.Forimpactsofwindpoweruncertaintiesonpowersystem,anewcombinationmethodofwindpowerforecastingbasedonimprovedcomputationalfluiddynamics(CFD)modelwaspropose
6、d.Firstly,wavelet-hybridneuralnetwork(HNN)wasusedtodownscaleNWPforwindmeasurementmast.Secondly,CFDspeedupcorrelationcoefficientwasestablishedtoreflectwindflowdistributionaccurately.Finally,anewvariable-weightCFDcombinationmethodofwindpowerforecastforeachw
7、indturbinewasputforwardconsideringrotorthrustcoefficientoffreeflowfieldandwakesofactuatordisc.Engineeringapplicationsshowthattheproposedmethodcaneffectivelyreflectwindfarmoperationstateandimprovewindpowerforecastingaccuracy.测方法更准确地反映了风电场实际运行状态,有效提高了预测准确性。
8、关键词:功率预测;组合方法;计算流体力学;小波混合神经网络;尾流模型DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.0734——————————————————————————————————————------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------0引言风电本身所特