美股投资策略-美国中小企业策略：贸易战保证防御地位

《美股投资策略-美国中小企业策略：贸易战保证防御地位》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、COREU.S.Small&MidCapStrategyTradeWarsWarrantDefensiveINDUSTRYUPDATEEquityResearch23July2018PositioningThusfarthisyear,smallcapshavehandilyoutperformedlargecaps.Akeycatalystdrivingthisoutperformance(+5.32%vs.largecaps)emergedinMarchwhenthepossibilityoftra

2、dewarscametotheforefront.Smallcapsbenefitedfromthepopularperceptionthattheywererelativelyimmunetothisriskduetotheirgreaterdomesticorientation.Wefindthatwhiletheoutperformancewasdrivenbyageneralpreferenceforsmallcapsoverlargecaps,thebulkofit(~50%)wasdrivenb

3、ytwosectors–FinancialsandHealthcare.WithinFinancials,small-capbanksdrovereturns(65%),whileBiotechsledtheway(43%)inHealthCare.Financialsshouldcontinueoutperformance;Biotechslikelytotakeabreather.Weexpectsmall-capFinancialstocontinuetooutperformthroughyear-e

4、nddrivenbyincreasedM&Aactivityfollowingrecentderegulation,strongertop-lineandearningsgrowthaidedbyhealthyloangrowth,andattractivevaluationsrelativetotheirhistory.Ontheotherhand,despiteincreasedM&Aactivityinsmall-capBiotech,webelieveitisunlikelythattheywill

5、continuetooutperforminlightoftheirhighmomentumexposureandextendedvaluations.Post-crisis,whensmall-capBiotechshaveexhibitedstrongmomentumexposure,ithasresultedinpoorreturnsinthesubsequent3-12months.Smallcapsfaceasymmetricrisktothedownsideonaccountoftradewar

6、s.Basedonouranalysis,weconcludethatdespitethelowerlevelsofforeignsalesofsmallcapscomparedtolargecaps,smallcapsarelikelytofarefarworsethanlargecapsdueto:1)theirhigherestimatedimportandexportlevels,2)muchlowermarginsthatresultsinhigherearningslosses,and3)les

7、serpricingpowerthatrestrictstheirabilitytopassonhighertariffcoststotheircustomers.Thusparadoxically,smallcapsaremoreexposedtoatradewardespitetheir‘domestic’orientation.Werecommendadefensivepositioninginsmallcapsgivengreaterriskoftradewarescalation.Webeliev

8、einvestorsshouldincreaseexposuretosmall-capstockswithhighermarginsandlimitedinternationalexposure.Thiscombinationshouldlimitexposuretotariffswhileallowingforagreatermarginbuffertoabsorbcostpressuresfromtariff