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ID:14995386
大小:395.60 KB
页数:26页
时间:2018-07-31
《美股投资策略-美国中小企业策略:贸易战保证防御地位》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、COREU.S.Small&MidCapStrategyTradeWarsWarrantDefensiveINDUSTRYUPDATEEquityResearch23July2018PositioningThusfarthisyear,smallcapshavehandilyoutperformedlargecaps.Akeycatalystdrivingthisoutperformance(+5.32%vs.largecaps)emergedinMarchwhenthepossibilityoftra
2、dewarscametotheforefront.Smallcapsbenefitedfromthepopularperceptionthattheywererelativelyimmunetothisriskduetotheirgreaterdomesticorientation.Wefindthatwhiletheoutperformancewasdrivenbyageneralpreferenceforsmallcapsoverlargecaps,thebulkofit(~50%)wasdrivenb
3、ytwosectors–FinancialsandHealthcare.WithinFinancials,small-capbanksdrovereturns(65%),whileBiotechsledtheway(43%)inHealthCare.Financialsshouldcontinueoutperformance;Biotechslikelytotakeabreather.Weexpectsmall-capFinancialstocontinuetooutperformthroughyear-e
4、nddrivenbyincreasedM&Aactivityfollowingrecentderegulation,strongertop-lineandearningsgrowthaidedbyhealthyloangrowth,andattractivevaluationsrelativetotheirhistory.Ontheotherhand,despiteincreasedM&Aactivityinsmall-capBiotech,webelieveitisunlikelythattheywill
5、continuetooutperforminlightoftheirhighmomentumexposureandextendedvaluations.Post-crisis,whensmall-capBiotechshaveexhibitedstrongmomentumexposure,ithasresultedinpoorreturnsinthesubsequent3-12months.Smallcapsfaceasymmetricrisktothedownsideonaccountoftradewar
6、s.Basedonouranalysis,weconcludethatdespitethelowerlevelsofforeignsalesofsmallcapscomparedtolargecaps,smallcapsarelikelytofarefarworsethanlargecapsdueto:1)theirhigherestimatedimportandexportlevels,2)muchlowermarginsthatresultsinhigherearningslosses,and3)les
7、serpricingpowerthatrestrictstheirabilitytopassonhighertariffcoststotheircustomers.Thusparadoxically,smallcapsaremoreexposedtoatradewardespitetheir‘domestic’orientation.Werecommendadefensivepositioninginsmallcapsgivengreaterriskoftradewarescalation.Webeliev
8、einvestorsshouldincreaseexposuretosmall-capstockswithhighermarginsandlimitedinternationalexposure.Thiscombinationshouldlimitexposuretotariffswhileallowingforagreatermarginbuffertoabsorbcostpressuresfromtariff
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