game theory evolving 2009

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1、GameTheoryEvolving,SecondEditionThispageintentionallyleftblankGameTheoryEvolving,SecondEditionAProblem-CenteredIntroductiontoModelingStrategicInteractionHerbertGintisPrincetonUniversityPressPrincetonandOxfordCopyright
c2009byPrincetonUniversityPressPublishedbyPri

2、ncetonUniversityPress,41WilliamStreet,Princeton,NewJersey08540IntheUnitedKingdom:PrincetonUniversityPress,6OxfordStreet,Woodstock,OxfordshireOX201TWAllRightsReservedLibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataGintis,Herbert.Gametheoryevolving:aproblem-centeredi

3、ntroductiontomodelingstrategicinteraction/HerbertGintis.-2nded.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-0-691-14050-6(hardcover:alk.paper)-ISBN978-0-691-14051-3(pbk.:alk.paper)1.Gametheory.2.Economics,Mathematical.I.Title.HB144.G562008330.01’5193-dc

4、222008036523BritishLibraryCataloging-in-PublicationDataisavailableThepublisherwouldliketoacknowledgetheauthorofthisvolumeforprovidingthecamera-readycopyfromwhichthisbookwasprintedThisbookwascomposedinTimesandMathtimebytheauthorPrintedonacid-freepaper.press.prince

5、ton.eduPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica10987654321ToMarciandDanRiverrun,pastEveandAdam’s,fromswerveofshoretobendofbay,bringsusbyaCommodiusvicusofrecircu-lationbackJamesJoyceThispageintentionallyleftblankContentsPrefacexv1ProbabilityTheory11.1BasicSetTheoryandMat

6、hematicalNotation11.2ProbabilitySpaces21.3DeMorgan’sLaws31.4Interocitors31.5TheDirectEvaluationofProbabilities31.6ProbabilityasFrequency41.7Craps51.8AMarksmanContest51.9Sampling51.10AcesUp61.11Permutations61.12CombinationsandSampling71.13MechanicalDefects71.14Mas

7、sDefection71.15HouseRules71.16TheAdditionRuleforProbabilities81.17AGuessingGame81.18NorthIsland,SouthIsland81.19ConditionalProbability91.20Bayes’Rule91.21ExtrasensoryPerception101.22LesCinqTiroirs101.23DrugTesting101.24ColorBlindness111.25Urns111.26TheMontyHallGa

8、me111.27TheLogicofMurderandAbuse111.28ThePrincipleofInsufficientReason121.29TheGreensandtheBlacks121.30TheBrainandKidneyProblem121.31TheValueofEyewitnessTestimo