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1、ProbabilityChapter62007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片16.1AssigningprobabilitiestoEventsRandomexperiment（隨機實驗）arandomexperimentisaprocessorcourseofaction,whoseoutcomeisuncertain.ExamplesExperimentOutcomesFlipacoinHeads,TailsExamMarksNumbers:0,1,2,...,100AssemblyTimet>0secondsCourseGradesF,D,C,B,A,A+2007會計資訊系統計學(一)
2、上課投影片26.1AssigningprobabilitiestoEventsPerformingthesamerandomexperimentrepeatedly,mayresultindifferentoutcomes,therefore,thebestwecandoisconsidertheprobabilityofoccurrenceofacertainoutcome.Todeterminetheprobabilitiesweneedtodefineandlistthepossibleoutcomesfirst.2007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片3ProbabilitiesLis
3、ttheoutcomesofarandomexperiment…Thislistmustbeexhaustive（周延）i.e.ALLpossibleoutcomesincluded.Dieroll{1,2,3,4,5}Dieroll{1,2,3,4,5,6}Thelistmustbemutuallyexclusive（互斥）i.e.notwooutcomescanoccuratthesametime.Dieroll{numberlessthan4orevennumber}Dieroll{oddnumberorevennumber}2007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片4SampleSpac
4、eAlistofexhaustiveandmutuallyexclusiveoutcomesiscalledasamplespace（樣本空間）andisdenotedbyS.TheoutcomesaredenotedbyO1,O2,…,OkUsingnotationfromsettheory,wecanrepresentthesamplespaceanditsoutcomesas:S={O1,O2,…,Ok}2007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片5SampleSpace:S={O1,O2,…,Ok}SampleSpaceasamplespaceofarandomexperimentisal
5、istofallpossibleoutcomesoftheexperiment.Theoutcomesmustbemutuallyexclusiveandexhaustive.SimpleEventsTheindividualoutcomesarecalledsimpleevents.Simpleeventscannotbefurtherdecomposedintoconstituentoutcomes.Event（事件）AneventisanycollectionofoneormoresimpleeventsOurobjectiveistodetermineP(A),theprobabili
6、tythateventAwilloccur.O1O22007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片6GivenasamplespaceS={O1,O2,…,Ok},theprobabilitiesassignedtotheoutcomemustsatisfytheserequirements:Theprobabilityofanyoutcomeisbetween0and1i.e.0≤P(Oi)≤1foreachi,andThesumoftheprobabilitiesofalltheoutcomesequals1i.e.P(O1)+P(O2)+…+P(Ok)=1Probabilityofaneven
7、t:TheprobabilityP(A)ofeventAisthesumoftheprobabilitiesassignedtothesimpleeventscontainedinA.RequirementsofProbabilitiesP(Oi)representstheprobabilityofoutcomei2007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片7ApproachestoAssigning
