麦肯锡--提升预测能力强化供应链管理

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1、麦肯锡--提升预测能力强化供应链管理KAMPrimer-A&AKnowledgeExchangeJune212002McKinseyAutomotive&AssemblyExtranethttps://autoassembly1>.mckinsey.comDevelopingForecastApproachestoGainSupplyChainAdvantagesMikeJavckman,VishalPandya,ScottScheinDIFFERENTPERSPECTIVESONFORECASTING“Thefutureisinevita

2、bleandpreciseAnalystbutitmaynotoccur”–JorgeLuisBorges,Argentinianauthor“Future.Thatperiodoftimewhereouraffairsprosper,ourfriendsaretrue,andourhappinessisassured”–AmbroseBierce,U.S.authorShareholderCEO&“It’slikedéjàvualloveragain”CFO–YogiBerra,Catcher,NewYorkYankeesSource:TheAc

3、countingReview,19841DISCUSSIONOUTLINEManycompanieslosemillionsofdollarseveryyearduetoforecasterrorsandunderestimatethepotentialtogaincompetitiveadvantagesthroughforecastingCompaniesarerequestingsupportinestablishingaforecastingprogramandmethodologyThereisaprocessforinstitutionaliz

4、ingbestpracticesinforecastinginlessthan6months2DIFFERENTOBJECTIVESOFFORECASTINGRequiredforExamples??Productlifecycle??Productlinetransitions??Long-termcapacity??Annualvolumeout3-5planningyears??Capitalasset/equipment/??Buy/build/leaseStrategichumanresourcedecisionsmanagement??Cust

5、omersegmentation??Targetmarkets??Budgeting??Totalannual/monthly??FinancialreportingFinancialvolume??Workingcapital??Productmixmanagement??Customerservice??Inventoryrequirements??Resource??Weekly/monthlySKU-planning/supplychainleveldemandOperationalmanagement??Ordersizeand??Supplie

6、rmanagementfrequency3THEREARESEVERALMOVINGPARTSINAROBUSTFORECASTSupplierMarketingInventoryProductionHRhiringandcontractsspendmgmt.schedulingtrainingInternalvariablesITsystemsAssumptionandsandtechniquesmethodsManagementWallAnalystCapacitySystemsprocessandStreetcapabilityplanningand

7、toolsdecisionsresponseExperienceAccountabilityandjudgmentandincentivesExternalvariablesCompetitiveIndustryMacro-dynamicstrendseconomictrends4POORFORECASTINGOFTENRESULTSFROMABREAKDOWNAreasimpactedbyRootcausedriverspoorforecastsExamplesDemandmanagement??Erratic/unreliablecustomerser

8、viceInaccurateUnreliable??Manualp