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1、PorkinChinaYearofthegoldenpigWhyarepricessoaring?Jun7th2007
2、WHILEmanyChina-watchersfretabouttheconsequencesofacollapseofChina'sstockmarket,WenJiabao,theprimeminister,seemsmoreworriedabouttheriskofsocialunrestasaresultoftherocketingpriceofpork.A50%riseintheaveragenationwid
3、epriceoverthepastyeariscausingsquealsofalarm.LastweekMrWenwentsofarastovisitafarmtoshowheistakingtheissueseriously.MrWenpromisedthatthegovernmentwouldacttoensureadequatesuppliesofpork;ifnecessary,tostabilisepricesitcanreleasestocksfromitsstrategicreservesofbothfrozenporkan
4、dlivepigs.PorkisChina'sstaplemeat.TheaveragepersoneatsmoreporkthaninanycountryotherthanGermany.Butitaccountsforalmost4%ofChina'sconsumer-pricebasket,againstlessthan1%inGermany.RisingporkpricescouldthereforepushupChina'sinflationrateovercomingmonths.JimingHa,chiefeconomista
5、tChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation,estimatesthatinflationwillriseto3.4%inMay,from3%inApril.Economistsarescratchingtheirheadstoexplainthepricejump.Someblameitonblue-ear,acontagiousdiseasewhichmayhavekilled18,000or20mpigs,dependingonwhomyoubelieve.Otherssaythemaincauseist
6、hesurgeinglobalgrainprices,whichhaveincreasedthecostoffeedforpigs.ItisnotonlytheChinesewhoarepayingmorefortheirpork.CapitalEconomics,aLondon-basedeconomicsfirm,pointsoutthatAmericanporkpriceshavealsojumpedbymorethan50%overthepastyear.Economists,however,mayrecalltheold“hogc
7、ycle”thattheylearntaboutintheirfirstyearofeconomics.Thisexplainswhypricesincertainmarketsaresubjecttoperiodicboomsandbusts,becauseofalagbetweentheresponseinproductiontoachangeofprice.Chineseporkpricestodayarenotmuchhigherthanattheirpeakin2004.Highpricesthenpromptedfarmerst
8、oproducemore,andpricesfellsharplyfortwoyears.Thatinturndiscouragedfarmersfromraisingpigs.Theinevitableresultwastoday'shigherprices,whichwillprobablyleadtoglutandfallingpricestomorrow.Pigsmayfly.Butnotforever.Fromtheprintedition:AsiaChina'smigrantworkersNoplacetocallhomeThe
9、re'splentyofwork,butnowheretoliveJun7th2007
10、 beijing
11、INAnarrowalleywayinLiguanzhuangvil
