预测电信行业客户流失--基于一种sas生存分析模式的应用程序_毕业论文.doc

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1、标题：PredictingCustomerChurnintheTelecommunicationsIndustry––AnApplicationofSurvivalAnalysisModelingUsingSAS原文：ABSTRACTConventionalstatisticalmethods(e.g.logisticsregression,decisiontree,andetc.)areverysuccessfulinpredictingcustomerchurn.However,thesemethodscouldhardlypredictwhencustomerswillchurn

2、,orhowlongthecustomerswillstaywith.Thegoalofthisstudyistoapplysurvivalanalysistechniquestopredictcustomerchurnbyusingdatafromatelecommunicationscompany.Thisstudywillhelptelecommunicationscompaniesunderstandcustomerchurnriskandcustomerchurnhazardinatimingmannerbypredictingwhichcustomerwillchurnan

3、dwhentheywillchurn.Thefindingsfromthisstudyarehelpfulfortelecommunicationscompaniestooptimizetheircustomerretentionand/ortreatmentresourcesintheirchurnreductionefforts.INTRODUCTIONInthetelecommunicationindustry,customersareabletochooseamongmultipleserviceprovidersandactivelyexercisetheirrightsof

4、switchingfromoneserviceprovidertoanother.Inthisfiercelycompetitivemarket,customersdemandtailoredproductsandbetterservicesatlessprices,whileserviceprovidersconstantlyfocusonacquisitionsastheirbusinessgoals.Giventhefactthatthetelecommunicationsindustryexperiencesanaverageof30-35percentannualchurnr

5、ateanditcosts5-10timesmoretorecruitanewcustomerthantoretainanexistingone,customerretentionhasnowbecomeevenmoreimportantthancustomeracquisition.Formanyincumbentoperators,retaininghighprofitablecustomersisthenumberonebusinesspain.Manytelecommunicationscompaniesdeployretentionstrategiesinsynchroniz

6、ingprogramsandprocessestokeepcustomerslongerbyprovidingthemwithtailoredproductsandservices.Withretentionstrategiesinplace,manycompaniesstarttoincludechurnreductionasoneoftheirbusinessgoals.Inordertosupporttelecommunicationscompaniesmanagechurnreduction,notonlydoweneedtopredictwhichcustomersareat

7、highriskofchurn,butalsoweneedtoknowhowsoonthesehigh-riskcustomerswillchurn.Thereforethetelecommunicationscompaniescanoptimizetheirmarketinginterventionresourcestopreventasmanycustomersaspossiblefromchurning.Inotherwords,ifth