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1、WHAT’SthekeytosuccessintheUnitedStates?ShortofbecomingarealityTVstar,theanswerisroteand,somewouldargue,ratherknee-jerk:Earnacollegedegree.Theideathatfouryearsofhighereducationwilltranslateintoabetterjob,higherearningsandahappierlife—arefrainsuretoberepeatedthismont
2、hatgraduationceremoniesacrossthecountry—hasbeenpoundedintotheheadsofschoolchildren,parentsandeducators.Butthere’sanundersidetothatconventionalwisdom.Perhapsnomorethanhalfofthosewhobeganafour-yearbachelor’sdegreeprograminthefallof2006willgetthatdegreewithinsixyears,
3、accordingtothelatestprojectionsfromtheDepartmentofEducation.(Thefiguresdon’tincludetransferstudents,whoaren’ttracked.)Forcollegestudentswhorankedamongthebottomquarteroftheirhighschoolclasses,thenumbersareevenmorestark:80percentwillprobablynevergetabachelor’sdegreeo
4、revenatwo-yearassociate’sdegree.Thatcanbealotoftuitiontopay,withoutadegreetoshowforit.Asmallbutinfluentialgroupofeconomistsandeducatorsispushinganotherpathway:forsomestudents,nocollegeatall.It’stime,theysay,todevelopcrediblealternativesforstudentsunlikelytobesucces
5、sfulpursuingahigherdegree,orwhomaynotbereadytodoso.Whethereveryoneincollegeneedstobethereisnotanewquestion;thesubjecthasbeenhashedoutinbooksanddissertationsforyears.Buttheeconomiccrisishassharpenedthatfocus,asfinanciallystrugglingstatescutaidtohighereducation.Among
6、thosecallingforsuchalternativesaretheeconomistsRichardK.VedderofOhioUniversityandRobertI.LermanofAmericanUniversity,thepoliticalscientistCharlesMurray,andJamesE.Rosenbaum,aneducationprofessoratNorthwestern.Theywouldsteersomestudentstowardintensive,short-termvocatio
7、nalandcareertraining,throughexpandedhighschoolprogramsandcorporateapprenticeships.“Itistruethatweneedmorenanosurgeonsthanwedid10to15yearsago,”saidProfessorVedder,founderoftheCenterforCollegeAffordabilityandProductivity,aresearchnonprofitinWashington.“Butthenumbersa
8、restillrelativelysmallcomparedtothenumbersofnurses’aideswe’regoingtoneed.Wewillneedhundredsofthousandsofthemoverthenextdecade.”Andmuchoftheirtrai
