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ID:13445744
大小:1.59 MB
页数:65页
时间:2018-07-22
《中国可再生能源行业报告-新篇章:网格平价》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、ChinaRenewableEnergySectorCONNECTIONSSERIESAnewchapterisunfolding:GridparityFigure1:China—investmentcosttrendssupportgridparityby2020(GW)(Rmb/W)8060406.5204.00751335832009201020112012201320142015201620172018E2019E2020EPostgrid-Annualinstallation-Wind(LHS)
2、Annualinstallation-Solar(LHS)Investmentcost-Wind(RHS)Investmentcost-Solar(RHS)paritySource:NDRC,CreditSuisseestimates■2020likelyalandmarkyear.Givenrecentindustrychanges,wenowbelievethatrenewablegridparityinChinacouldhappensoonerthanexpected,turningthesecto
3、rfrompolicy-dependenttosubsidy-free.Askeychanges,webringforwardfullsolarparitybyoneyeartoearly2020,andwealsotaketheviewthatwindparitycouldhappenin2020.Withoutsubsidies,solarandwinddemandcouldriseto75GWand35GWayearpost-2020,respectively,creatingunprecedented
4、growthforkeyplayers.■Dynamicsbeforedawn.Beforetheparitieshappenin2020,curtailmentreductionshouldcontinuetoboostwind-farmprofitabilityandcapacitygrowthisvisible,backedby2-3yearsofapprovedpipeline.AtaninvestmentcostofRmb6.5/Wand<5%curtailmentrate,windfarmswou
5、ldnolongerneedsubsidiestobeprofitable.Meanwhile,solarfarmscouldseenear-termdemanddownsidewithgovernmentintervention,andsolarmanufacturingcouldcontinuetosufferfrompricedeclines.Thisshouldquickensolarcostsdeclineto6、.Besidescurtailmentrelief,wealsoexpectwindfarmstobenefitfromthecash-flowboostsofnewprojectsundertheupcominggreencertificateschemein2H18.Forsolar,ournewdemandforecastisnow38GWforFY18E,suggestingfurtherpricefallsandmargincontractionsformanufacturersin2H18E.Al7、onger-termconcernisifChinahasenoughpowerdemandgrowthtoabsorbrisingrenewables,whichwearelessworriedabout,giventheriseofmultiplenewdrivers.■Stockcalls.Weincludepost-paritydynamicsintoourTPs,likelynotcapturedbycurrentvaluations.Wearebullishonwindoperators(HNR,8、Longyuan,andCRP[upgradefromNeutraltoOUTPERFORMonhigherwindearnings])andequipmentmakerslikeGoldwind(windfarmearningstooffsetturbinepricingrisk).Wearecautiousonsolarinthenearterm(cuttingearningsandTPs)bu
6、.Besidescurtailmentrelief,wealsoexpectwindfarmstobenefitfromthecash-flowboostsofnewprojectsundertheupcominggreencertificateschemein2H18.Forsolar,ournewdemandforecastisnow38GWforFY18E,suggestingfurtherpricefallsandmargincontractionsformanufacturersin2H18E.Al
7、onger-termconcernisifChinahasenoughpowerdemandgrowthtoabsorbrisingrenewables,whichwearelessworriedabout,giventheriseofmultiplenewdrivers.■Stockcalls.Weincludepost-paritydynamicsintoourTPs,likelynotcapturedbycurrentvaluations.Wearebullishonwindoperators(HNR,
8、Longyuan,andCRP[upgradefromNeutraltoOUTPERFORMonhigherwindearnings])andequipmentmakerslikeGoldwind(windfarmearningstooffsetturbinepricingrisk).Wearecautiousonsolarinthenearterm(cuttingearningsandTPs)bu
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