论文--影响粮食产量的相关因素分析

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1、影响粮食产量的相关因素分析为了研究中国影响粮食产量的各种因素，通过经济理论分析得出粮产量与以下四个因素有关，现建模如下：y=α+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+UX1:农业机械总动力（万千瓦）X2：有效灌溉面积（千公顷）X3：化肥施用量（万吨）X4：农业从业人员（万人）Y:粮食总产量（万吨）数据资料如下：地区X1X2X3X4Y北京399.2328.217.969.7144.2天津593.4353.216.679.7124.1河北7000.44482.3270.61665.52551.1山西1701.3110587658.3853.4内蒙古1350.323

2、71.774.8524.31241.9辽宁1339.81440.7109.8651.21140.0吉林1015.41315.1112.1516.81638.0黑龙江1613.82032121.6744.12545.5上海142.5285.919.384.6174.0江苏2925.33900.9335.51480.23106.6浙江1990.11403.289.71014.91217.7安徽2975.93197.2253.22001.82472.1福建873.3940.2123.3768.7854.7江西902.31903.4106.9983.41614.6山东7

3、025.24824.9423.22462.63837.7河南5780.64725.3419.53558.64101.5湖北1414.02072.5247.11159.12218.5湖南2209.72677.5182.22071.42767.9广东1763.91478.5176.21570.11760.1广西1467.91501.6157.81556.81528.5海南200.9179.826.3177.2199.6重庆586.5624.672921.51106.9四川1679.72469212.62631.13372.0贵州618.6653.471.31372.

4、11161.3云南1301.31403.4112.11674.31467.8西藏114.51572.590.196.2陕西1042.91308131.21002.21089.1甘肃1056.9981.564.5697.5713.5青海256.2211.47.2142.382.7宁夏380.6398.823.6153.1252.7新疆851.23094.379.2314.5783.7第一,进行OLS检验DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:05/16/04Time:14:53Sample:131Includedobs

5、ervations:31VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.X1-0.1362880.087494-1.5576810.1314X20.3015940.1348122.2371360.0341X35.5783721.9193772.9063450.0074X40.3595310.1519242.3665260.0257C79.59973119.36160.6668790.5107R-squared0.902706Meandependentvar1490.890AdjustedR-squared0.887738S

6、.D.dependentvar1141.343S.E.ofregression382.4131Akaikeinfocriterion14.87757Sumsquaredresid3802234.Schwarzcriterion15.10886Loglikelihood-225.6023F-statistic60.30791Durbin-Watsonstat1.447710Prob(F-statistic)0.000000从估计结果可以看出，模型拟合较好，可决系数R2=0.9027,表明模型在整体上拟合非常好。系数显著性检验：对于β，T统计量为负，说明β1未通过检

7、验，即农业机械总动力对粮产量的影响不显著，初步决定删除X1。第二，从影响粮产量的因素来看，所选的四个解释变量与粮产量都有密切关系，因此它们之间可能具有较强的共线性，现进行多重共线性检验：（1）根据简单相关系数公式，该模型中四个解释变量得相关系数矩阵如图所示：X1X2X3X4X110.8820383578510.8633335592230.714970041093X20.88203835785110.9017697064170.731461937668X30.8633335592230.90176970641710.848157708636X40.71497004

8、10930.731461