pattern and determinants of us intra-industry trade：a panel data study

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1、PatternandDeterminantsofUSIntra-IndustryTrade：APanelDataStudyPatternandDeterminantsofUSIntra-IndustryTrade:APanelDataStudy(美国产业内贸易的结构及决定因素：样本数据研究)YanhongZhang(章艳红人民大学经济学院andDonP.ClarkDepartmentofEconomicsUniversityofTennessee,Knoxville,USAJuly2005研究领域：国际经济学ThePatternandDeterminantso

2、fUSIntra-IndustryTrade:APanelDataStudyAbstract(摘要)ThispapercarriesoutanextensivestudyonthepatternanddeterminantsofUSaggregatedbilateralintra-industrytrade(IIT).USIITisdecomposedintohorizontalIITandverticalIITusinganewlyproposedmethodandtherelativeimportanceofhorizontalIITandvertical

3、IITiscompared.TheresultssuggestthatUSIITpatternischaracterizedbythedominanceofverticalIIToverhorizontalIITatcountrylevel.Aone-wayrandomeffectmodelisusedtoexaminethedeterminantsofUSIIT.Theresultsgenerallyyieldevidenceforthepredictionsfromboththehorizontaldifferentiationmodelandthever

4、ticaldifferentiationmodel;especially,theresultsconfirmtherolesofforeigndirectinvestmentandtechnology/productqualityupgradinginpromotingIIT.本篇文章致力于研究美国双边产业内贸易的结构及决定因素。用一种新的划分方法，我们将美国产业内贸易分成横向产业内贸易和纵向产业内贸易，然后比较它们的重要性。所得结果表明在美国双边产业内贸易中，纵向产业内贸易的比重显著大于横向产业内贸易的比重。我们也应用一个样本数据中的随机作用模型来调查美国产

5、业内贸易的决定因素，所得结果与理论模型的预期大概一致。并且，我们发现其贸易夥伴的外商直接投资和产品质量升级对美国产业内贸易有促进作用。Keywords:Intra-industrytrade,pattern,determinants.关键词：产业内贸易，结构，决定因素ThePatternandDeterminantsofUSIntra-IndustryTrade:APanelDataStudyIntroductionSincethe1960s,theexistenceandsignificanceofintra-industrytrade(IIT)hasled

6、toalargeamountofliteratureonIIT.Amongthem,theoreticalstudiesfocusonprovidingexplanationsfortheexistenceanddevelopmentofIIT,andempiricalstudiesmainlyfocusonexaminingdeterminantsofIIT,witharelativelysmallamountoftheliteratureonaggregationandmeasurementissuesofIIT.Thispapercarriesoutan

7、empiricalstudyonIIT.EmpiricalstudiesonIITaredeeplyaffectedbythedevelopmentintheoreticalstudies.Earlytheoreticalstudiesdevelopeda“new”tradetheorytoexplainIITbyhorizontalproductdifferentiation,scaleeconomiesandimperfectcompetition.Empiricalstudiesoftentestindustrycharacteristicssuchas

8、productdifferentiat