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1、EnablingActivitiesforthePreparationofJamaica’sSecondNationalcommunicationtotheUNFCCC:VulnerabilityandAdaptationinHumanHealthPreparedbyA.AnthonyChenWilmaBaileyMichaelA.TaylorInAssociationwiththeClimateStudiesGroup,MonaUniversityoftheWestIndiesAugust31,2008111TableofContentsPageChap
2、ter1Introduction3Chapter2ClimateImpactsonHealthinGeneral8Chapter3ResearchonRelationshipBetweenClimateChangeandHealthintheCaribbean23Chapter4ProjectedClimateChange,ThreatstoHealthandVulnerabilityinJamaica39Chapter5KnowledgeAttitudeandPractices(KAP)survey74Chapter6AdaptationStrategy
3、andPlanofAction82Chapter10Summary,UncertaintiesandAdditionalRecommendations(ResearchPriorities)99Acknowledgement103111Chapter1Introduction1.1ClimateChangeandHealthMankindisexertingunprecedentedpressuresontheplanetbywayofdepletingresourcesandharmfulwasteproducts.Manmadecarbondioxid
4、eandotherharmfulgreenhousegaseshavebeenincreasingalmostexponentiallysincethestartoftheindustrialrevolution.Worldaveragetemperaturehasrisenrelativelyfastoverthepast30yearsandsea-levelriseisgraduallyaccelerating—andtheincreasesareforecasttocontinueformorethanacentury,evenifwegradual
5、lycurtailgreenhousegasemissionsoverthenextfewdecades(IPCC,2007).Annualtemperatureswillcontinuetofluctuateupanddownduetonaturalvariabilitybutanupwardtrendhasbeensuperimposedbyanthropogenicglobalwarming.AriseofafewdegreesCelsiuswithinthecomingcentury,asforecastbytheUnitedNation’sInt
6、ergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC,2007),wouldaffecttheearth’secosystemsandlife,whichhaveevolvedwithinanarrowbandofclimatic-environmentalconditions.Themaincategoriesofadversehealthimpactsofclimatechangehavebeenwidelydiscussedelsewhere(McMichaeletal.,2003)andmorerecentlybyConf
7、alonierietal.,(2007).Theyincludethedirecteffectsofclimaticextremes,viz.,thermalstressandweatherdisasters,andthevariousdirectandindirecteffectsmediatedbyclimaticinfluencesonlocalcropyieldsandfisheriesandonrespiratorydiseasesandinfectiousdiseasetransmission,suchasthoserelatedtovecto
8、r-borneinfectiousdiseases.Extra-o
