麦肯锡：myths and realities in china’s semiconductor industry

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1、麦肯锡：MythsandRealitiesinChina’sSemiconductorIndustryHH/010507><9/SH-PD(2000)CONFIDENTIALMythsandRealitiesinChina’sSemiconductorIndustryUS-TaiwanBusinessCouncilSeptember15,2003Thisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclien

2、torganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ThismaterialwasusedbyMcKinsey&Companyduringanoralpresentation;itisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.HH/01050<9/SH-PD(2000)CHINAMYTHSANDREALITYChinaisthedrivingmarketforglobalsemiconductorgrowthbutthisdoesnottranslateintoasemi

3、conductorindustry(yet)Waveofgovernment-incentedfabinvestmentsappearstohavebeenoverblown–Taiwanisunlikelytobereplacedastheworld’sfoundrymanufacturingcenterButChinahasalong-termstrengthindesigngivenitsstronglocaldemandanddeeppoolofhumanresourcesChinaandTaiwanappeartohavemorepotentialtocollaborat

4、ethantocompeteastheirstrengthsarecomplementary1.taiwan-china-outlook4>>HH/01050<9/SH-PD(2000)SEMICONDUCTORCONSUMPTIONINCHINAWILLOUTPACEGLOBALGROWTHTOCREATETHETHIRDLARGESTSEMICONDUCTORMARKETINTHEWORLDChinasemiconductorconsumption’01-’06CAGR%,USDBillionsPercent17$30.1bn4%12Chinawillcontinuetolea

5、dtheregioninelectronicequipment2612productiongrowth,sustainedbyhealthydomesticconsumptionand100%=$13.<9bnincreasingexport3027Others4%32China’sGDPgrowthandWTOentryConsumerelectronicswillbringaboutmassive1<9Communication40infrastructureinvestmentand,in15Dataprocessing44turn,increasethecountry�

6、3<9;sdomesticinformationtechnologyspending20012006Globalsemi-conductor<9.6consumption154244(USDbillion)By2006,ChinawillbecomeChinaasthethirdlargestpercentageof11.0812.34semiconductormarketintheglobaltotal(%)world,nexttotheU.S.andJapanSource:Dataquest2HH/01050<9/SH-PD(2000)NORTHASIAWILLBETHEKEY

7、MANUFACTUREROFNEWTECHNOLOGIES…Today’stechnologiesTomorrow’stechnologies3.taiwan-china-outlook>HH/01050<9/SH-PD(2000)SEMICONDUCTORCONSUMPTIONINGREATERCHINAISDRIVENBYHIGH-VOLUMECOMPUTINGANDCOMMUNICATIONDEVICES2006,USDTaiwanChina100%=14bil