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1、国际贸易InternationalTradeDr.MiaojieYuCCERPekingUniversityCopyright©2006PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.联系信息ContactInformationInstructor教师:余淼杰博士Office办公室:郎润园621OfficeHours答疑时间:周一15:30-16:30Email:mjyu@ccer.edu.cnTelephone:6275-3109Fax:6275-1475CourseWeb:http://mjyu.ccer.
2、edu.cn/courses/trade08.htmlOutlineoftheTalkIntegrationofTradeDisintegrationofProductionChina’sCurrentTradeSituationSino-U.S.TradeRelationshipTraditionalTradeTheoryCurrentResearchTopicsQ&AIntegrationofTradeHowmuchdowetrade?TradestillremainsaseeminglysmallfractionofGDPforrich
3、countries.Thedecadesleadingupto1913wasagoldenageofglobaltradeandinvestment.Theglobalintegrationoftradekeepsthesamelevel.Table1(Feenstra,1998)IntegrationofTradeTheWorldIsMoreIntegratedThanEverSomefactsarehidden.Industrialcountrieshaveincreasingsharesoftheireconomiesdevotedto
4、servicesratherthanmanufacturing.Makecomparisonfromdifferentviews.Shouldmeasuremerchandisetraderelativetomerchandisevalue-added.Almostallcountrieshaveexperiencedsubstantialgrowthintrade.Table2Table1.2MerchandiseTradeRelativetoGDPandMerchandiseValue-Added,1960-1990(percent)Ta
5、ble1.1U.S.MerchandiseTradebyIndustry,2001,SharesofTotalTradeandProductionorUse(percentages)Table1.3PercentageDistributionofExportsbyMajorTradingGroups,1985-1998HowtoExplainGrowingTrade?TradeLiberalizationGATT/WTORegionalTradeAgreements:CUSFTA,NAFTA,CARICOM,CACM,MERCOSUR,ASE
6、AN,SPARTECA.FallingTransportationCost2/5tradegrowthcanbeexplainedbythesetwofactors.Whentradingpartnersbecomesmoresimilarinsize.--Example:WorldGDP=150;Scenario1:CountryA=100;countryB=25,countryC=25Scenario2:CountryA=50;countryB=50,countryC=50Maximumexportsaredifferent.Disint
7、egrationofProductionDisintegrationofproductionitselfleadstomoretradedue,inlargepart,tothecalculationmethod.OutsourcingBarbiedollstory(Tempest,1996)Sellforabout$10intheU.S.MadeinMainlandChina,butexportfromHongKongfor$265centscovermaterialscost,35centspayforChineselabor.There
8、maining1$fortransportationinChinaTheremaining7$fortransportation,marketing,wholesa