a comparative economic account of chinas new normal

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1、AComparativeEconomicAccountofChina’SNewNormalMasah渤Aoki(StanfordUniversity,USA，NationalInstituteofResearchAdvancementfNIRA)，Japan)ItisnowofficiallyrecognizedthatChinahasenteredtheeraofNewNormalfollowingthehistoricallyunprecedentederaofhighgrowthinthepastthr

2、eeandhalfdecades．WhatarethemajorcharacteristicsoftheNewNormaldistinctfromthepast?ThisshortcommentarydealswithpossibleeconomicanddemographicbackgroundsandconditionsfortheNewNormal．Itwas2009thatChinawassaidtosurpassJapanintermsofGDP(currentprice)tobecomethese

3、condlargesteconomyintheworld(MFestimates)．However,ifwetakerealGDPestimatesintermsofpurchasingpowerparity(PPP)，China’Sgrowthachievementappearstobeevenmoreimpressive．HerrealGDPin2013hasalreadygrownto16，149billionUS$，amountingtoabout3．5timesofthatofJapan’S(IMF

4、estimate)．IntermsofGDPpercapitaChinaisstilltrailingJapanbyabout70％，however,althoughGDPpercapitaofCoastalChinaWas$13，449in2010US$andtrailedJapanbyabout60％accordingtomycalculationusingprovincialdata(seeFigure2below)．Thesesimpleobservationsraiseahostofinterest

5、ingissues．AsChinahasevidentlyachieyedamiddle．incomecountry(intermsofrealGDPpercapita)．canChinastillsustainahi学growthratecomparabletothepast?Ifnot，thenwhatarefactorsthatcharacterizeandconditiongrowthopportunitiesintheNewNormal?ArethereanythingthatCanbesugges

6、tedintheseregardsfromexperiencesofotherEastAsianeconomies，sayJapan，SouthKoreaand(Taiwan，China)?I．Supply-SideSourcesofPerCapitaGDPGrowth：APreliminaryComparativeStatisticsLetmestartwithasimpleaccountingexerciseofdecomposingpercapitaGDPgrowthratesintovarioussu

7、pply—sidesources．AlthoughpublicpolicydiscussionsongrowthpossibilityinChinaandelsewhereoftenfocusonshort-term，demand—sidefactorssuchasexports，investments，publicandprivateconsumptions(i．e．，theSO．calledthree．horse．drawncarriage“三驾马车”)，itisimportanttolookintosu

8、pply-sidefactorsforassessinglonger-termgrowthopportunities．PercapitaGDPgrowthamountingto8．62％intheperiodbetween2008-2012canbedecomposedintothefollowingsources：Thecontributionofincreasingshareoftheworki