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1、40.Thefollowingappearedaspartofanarticleinaweeklynewsmagazine.“ThecountryofSaccharcanbestsolveitscurrenttradedeficitproblembyloweringthepriceofsugar,itsprimaryexport.SuchanactionwouldmakeSaccharbetterabletocompeteformarketswithothersugar-exportingcountries.ThesaleofSacchar’ssugarabroadwould
2、increase,andthisincreasewouldsubstantiallyreduceSacchar’stradedeficit.”Discusshowwellreasoned...etc.TheauthorofthisarticlearguesthatthecountryofSaccharcanbestsolveitscurrenttradedeficitproblembyloweringthepriceofitsmainexport,sugar.ThelineofreasoningisthatthisactionwouldmakeSaccharmorecompe
3、titivewithothersugar-exportingcountries,therebyincreasingsalesofSacchar’ssugarabroadand,inturn,substantiallyreducingthetrade-deficit.Thislineofreasoningisunconvincingforacoupleofreasons.Inthefirstplace,thisargumentisbasedonanoversimplifiedanalysisofthetradedeficitproblemSaccharcurrentlyface
4、s.Atrade-deficitoccurswhenacountryspendsmoreonimportsthanitearnsfromexports.Theauthor’sargumentreliesontheassumptionthatearningsfromimportswillremainconstant.However,theauthorprovidesnoevidencethatsubstantiatesthisassumption.Itispossiblethatrevenuesfromimportswillincreasedramaticallyinthene
5、arfuture;ifso,thecourseofactionproposedbytheauthormightbeunnecessarytosolveSacchar’stradedeficitproblem.Conversely,itispossiblethatrevenuesfromimportsarelikelytodecreasedramaticallyinthenearfuture.Totheextentthatthisisthecase,loweringsugarpricesmayhaveanegligiblecountervailingeffect,dependi
6、ngonthedemandforSacchar’ssugar.Inthesecondplace,increasingsalesbyloweringthepriceofsugarwillnotyieldanincreaseinincomeunlesstheincreaseinsalesissufficienttoovercomethelossinincomeduetothelowerprice.Thisraisesthreequestionstheauthorfailstoaddress.First,willapricedecreaseinfactstimulatedemand
7、?Second,isdemandsufficienttomeettheincreaseinsupply?Third,canSaccharincreasethesugarproductionsufficientlytoovercomethedeficit?Intheabsenceofanswerstothesequestions,wecannotassesstheauthor’sproposal.Inconclusion,theauthorprovidesanincompleteanalysisofthe
