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1、ThegreenbarriertofreetradeC.P.ChandrasekharJayatiGhoshAstheMarch31deadlineforcompletingthe"modalities"stageoftheproposednewroundofnegotiationsonglobalagriculturaltradenears,hopesofanagreementareincreasinglywaning.InthiseditionofMacroscan,C.P.ChandrasekharandJayatiGhos
2、hexaminethefactorsandtheplayersconstrainingtherealisationofsuchanagreement.ATTHEENDofthelatestroundofmeetingsoftheagriculturalnegotiationscommitteeoftheWTO,theoptimismthatnegotiatorswouldmeettheMarch31deadlineforworkingoutnumericaltargets,formulasandother"modalities"t
3、hroughwhichcountriescanframetheirliberalisationcommitmentsinanewfull-fledgedroundoftradenegotiationshasalmostdisappeared.Thattargetwasimportantfortworeasons.First,itisnowbecomingclear,thatevenmorethanwastrueduringtheUruguayRound,forginganagreementintheagriculturalarea
4、isboundtoproveextremelydifficult.Progressintheagriculturalnegotiationswaskeytopersuadingtheunconvincedthatanew`DohaRound'oftradenegotiationsisusefulandfeasible.Second,theDohadeclarationmadeagriculturalnegotiationsonepartofa`singleundertaking'tobecompletedbyJanuary1,20
5、05.Thatis,inatake`all-or-nothing'scheme,countrieshadtoarriveat,andbeboundby,agreementsinallareasinwhichnegotiationsweretobeinitiatedinthenewround.Thismeansthatifagreementisnotworkedoutwithregardtoagriculture,therewouldbenochangeinthemultilateraltraderegimegoverningind
6、ustry,servicesorrelatedareasandnoprogressinnewareas,suchascompetitionpolicy,foreigninvestmentandpublicprocurement,allofwhicharecrucialtotheeconomicagendaofthedevelopedcountries.Thefactorsmakingagriculturethestickingpointonthisoccasionarenumerous.AsinthelastRound,there
7、islittleagreementamongthedevelopedcountriesthemselvesontheappropriateshapeoftheglobalagriculturaltraderegime.TherearesubstantialdifferencesintheagendaoftheUS,theEUandthedevelopedcountrieswithintheCairnsgroupofagriculturalexporters.Whentherichandthepowerfuldisagree,agl
8、obalconsensusisnoteasytocomeby.Butthatisnotall.Evenifanagreementisstitchedupbetweentherichnations,throughmanoeuvressuchasthe
