strategic analysis on responding human avian flu and flu pandemic in china

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1、StrategicAnalysisonRespondingHumanAvianFluandFluPandemicinChinaBIOMEDICALANDENVIRONMENTALSCIENCES19,158—161(2006)StrategicAnalysisonRespondingHumanAvianFluandFluPandemicinChinaGUANGZENGChineseCenterfo,DiseaseControlandPrevention,Beijing100050,ChinaThe20thce

2、nturyhaswitnessedthreeglobalinfluenzapandemicsattackingmankind.namelythe1918Spanishpandemic(H1N1subgroup),the1957Asianpandemic(H2N2subgroup)andthe1968HongKongpandemicfH3N2subgroup).Thefirstpandemicsweptthroughouttheentireworldwithinsixtoninemonths.whichaffe

3、cted400millionpeople.accountingfor20%Ofthetotalworldpopulation.and40to50milliondeathswhichweremorethanthetotaldeathsinWOridI.resultingtheworstcatastropheinthehistoryofhumaninfectiousdiseases【11.Atthemoment.theworldisthreatenedbyanavianinfluenzapandemicandpe

4、opleareconcernedaboutapotentialworldwidehumaninfluenzapandemic.I.ANALYSISOFPROBABⅡITY0FGLOBALINFLUENZAPcNDEMICAglobalpandemicoccursunder4conditions:anewsubgroupproducedbyviralmutationorthereestablishmentofasubgroupcausingapandemic,generalvulnerabilityamongm

5、ankind,rapidspreadofthediseaseinpopulationsandthelethalpowerofthevirusonhumanbeings.Bynow,wehaveseennoneofthesubgroupspossessingallthefourconditions,buttheriskisrisingconstantly.Forinstance.therehavebeenseveralmassiveoutbreaksofavianfluinpoultryandwildbirds

6、sincespring2005.whichisararecaseinhistory.Furthermore,seasonalmigrationofwildbirdshastriggeredawidespreadprevalenceofbirdfluacrosstheAsianandEuropeanContinents.InAsia.humanavianinfluenzacaseshavebeenreported.Someareclustersofcasesandnewcaseshaverecentlybeen

7、detectedinTurkev.Thereisevidencethatthefluvirusismutatingatahigherrate.theriskofsuddenemergenceofanewsubgroupincreases,andsomeofthesubgroupcausingpandemicsinthepastalsoposesathreat.Moreover,biologicalterrorism,eithercausedbyaccidentorcommittedpurposefully.i

8、sanothercapabletriggerofapandemic.ThehazardousmisdeliveryoffluvirussamplesbytheAmericanPathologistAssociationto5000labsaroundtheworldin2005wasanexample.whichfortunatelydidnotresultinamajordisasterthank