模具生产计划的制定

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1、模具生产计划的制定目录1.市场需求预测-----------------------------22.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析---------------53.生产方式的经济分析和比较-----------------74.制定综合生产计划-------------------------95.生产能力的粗平衡-------------------------106.制定主生产计划---------------------------107.制定MRP,CRP------------------------------118.生产能力的精平衡----------

2、---------------219.零件工序卡编制---------------------------2210.产品装配工序卡编制-----------------------23２４武汉理工大学机电工程学院1.市场需求预测（Marketforecast）HistoricalRecord(AggregateDemand)Month1Month2Month3Month4Year110192522Year211212824Year312223026Year4由上表所给的数据作出判断可知市场需求与时间季节因素有关，方案一：SEASONALIZEDTIMESERIESR

3、EGRESSIONFORECASTING------------------------------------------------------------------FORECASTSales--------------------------ABSOLUTEYEARSEASONACTUALREGRESSIONSEASONALIZEDERROR1110.00018.6729.8590.1411219.00019.06518.9120.0881325.00019.45825.8400.8401422.00019.85122.8680.8682111.00020.

4、24410.6890.3112221.00020.63720.4720.5282328.00021.03027.9280.0722424.00021.42324.6790.6793112.00021.81611.5190.4813222.00022.20922.0310.0313330.00022.60230.0150.0153426.00022.99526.4900.490-------------------------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(95%)YE

5、ARSEASONFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND4112.34911.70012.998２４武汉理工大学机电工程学院4223.59122.37224.8094332.10330.47133.7354428.30126.88529.716REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=18.2789b=0.3930R=0.938FORECAST=Y*SEAR-SQUARE=0.8789MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=0.179MEA

6、NSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.234MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.108STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.5515SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.528SEASONALINDEX(2)=0.992SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.328SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.152SONALINDEX(i)方案二：TIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTINGSalesSalesABSOLUTEPERIODACTUALFORECA

7、STERROR110.00016.0266.026219.00016.9002.100325.00017.7747.226422.00018.6483.352511.00019.5228.522621.00020.3960.604728.00021.2706.730824.00022.1451.855912.00023.01911.0191022.00023.8931.893２４武汉理工大学机电工程学院1130.00024.7675.2331226.00025.6410.359-------------------------------------------